[Global Focus] Tech vs Maga, Divided US Cabinet... Discord on Immigration and China Policies

Silicon Valley and MAGA Forces Dominate Key Positions
Clashes Expected Due to Differences in Work Styles and Diplomatic Visions
Disagreements Over High-Skilled Immigrant Influx and China Policy

The Donald Trump administration, launching this month, is largely composed of two groups: the 'technocrats' from Silicon Valley and the 'MAGA' (Make America Great Again) faction advocating American nationalism. While these groups share strong internal networks and are favored by President-elect Trump, their goals differ. Having clashed once recently over the issue of accepting highly skilled immigrants, these two groups are expected to have discord over trade, diplomacy, and administrative reforms during Trump's second term. Can President-elect Trump unite these two bureaucratic groups with different backgrounds and visions to lead the cabinet?

The Immigration Visa Debate Is Just the Beginning

The first battlefield where tech figures occupying key White House positions and the MAGA camp clashed was the 'highly skilled immigrant issue.' Sriram Krishnan, an Indian-American nominated as the chief AI policy advisor for the upcoming White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, asked his close friend Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, to help abolish the cap on issuing 'H-1B' visas granted to professional foreign workers, which sparked backlash from anti-immigration hardliners. The H-1B visa is provided annually to up to 85,000 foreign professionals in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields. The MAGA faction, including Steven Miller, the designated Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy who helped design the Trump administration's anti-immigration policies, views these visas as taking jobs away from Americans.

On the other hand, technocrats, many of whom are immigrants from India, China, and Taiwan, including South African-born CEO Musk, are favorable toward unlimited issuance of H-1B visas. For big tech companies, it is a means to secure excellent engineers from overseas, such as India, at a low cost. When Musk stated, "There is a shortage of engineers in the U.S. with both talent and passion," defending immigration inflows, former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon attacked him as a "truly evil person," accusing IT moguls of manipulating the immigration system and using the H-1B visa issue for their own benefit.

The Economist assessed, "Recently, Musk and other tech giants exchanged barbs with the MAGA crowd over highly skilled immigration," adding, "Though it seems like a minor quarrel over visas, it actually signals a much deeper rift." CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar also predicted, "Even before Trump has taken office, the strange political alliance between the anti-immigration MAGA camp and the globalization billionaires has already begun to fracture," and "this rift will continue to grow."

Different Dreams Regarding China

Technocrats and the MAGA camp are also expected to have significant differences in their approach toward China. For technocrats, who are fundamentally entrepreneurs, China is both a competitor and a 'land of opportunity.' However, for the China hawks filling the foreign policy and national security lines of the second Trump administration, China is a hostile nation that must be defeated. Figures such as Marco Rubio, the designated Secretary of State who has consistently been involved in congressional moves to sanction China, Mike Waltz, the designated National Security Advisor, and John Ratcliffe, the designated CIA Director, have all warned that China is the "greatest threat." Peter Navarro, the designated senior advisor for trade and manufacturing who led the U.S.-China trade war during Trump's first term, is also back in control of the U.S. protectionist trade route.

Elon Musk, the leader of the technocrats, would be among the most affected if the 'hawks' within the MAGA camp push for complete decoupling from China. China accounts for more than 20% of Tesla's total sales and hosts Tesla's largest overseas factory. The Tesla Shanghai plant, which sources 95% of its production parts locally, started with full support from the Chinese government, including a 'regulatory free pass' and low-interest loans worth 11 billion yuan (about 2 trillion won). Expectations are growing that Musk will play the role of a 'second Kissinger' in China, and even his mother's memoir has become a bestseller. Thus, the U.S.-China trade conflict inevitably poses a critical blow.

Technocrats, being 'loyalists,' currently do not openly oppose President-elect Trump's punitive tariffs on China. However, if Trump's threats escalate beyond negotiation tactics to a full-scale trade war with China, the situation will change. Silicon Valley figures tend to emphasize the use of global supply chains due to the nature of the IT industry they belong to, which contrasts with the regulation-heavy MAGA camp.

The Economist stated, "The meaning of 'America First' as expressed by the tech camp and the MAGA camp is different," explaining, "The MAGA camp dreams the impossible dream of reviving American manufacturing to regain past glory, while the tech camp looks to the future, accelerating creative destruction in society to make the world MAGA longs for disappear into the annals of history."

Potential Powder Keg DOGE: Will It Become a Place of Coexistence?

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by CEO Musk, is also identified as a factor that could fuel conflicts between the two camps. Announcing a drastic 'government slimming' including a $2 trillion federal budget cut, if he tries to forcibly apply the extreme efficiency pursuit common in the IT industry to government operations, it could provoke backlash from the conservative camp cautious about change. Musk has already announced plans to abolish remote work for public officials and reorganize over 400 federal agencies into fewer than 100, signaling a 'storm of layoffs.'

Regarding this, Max Steer, head of the Public Service Partnership (PPS), diagnosed, "Musk and Vivek's DOGE seems motivated by Silicon Valley's business model of rapid execution and breaking conventions," but added, "Since the fundamental purpose of government is to pursue public interest, running the government like an IT startup by prioritizing efficiency above all else could cause significant side effects."

However, there is also a view that federal reforms carried out during Trump's second term could provide an opportunity for the two camps to collaborate. The MAGA camp, like the technocrats who pursue a 'small government' through deregulation, also shudders at the entrenched bureaucratic establishment known as the 'deep state.' Scenarios are discussed where the technocrats might restrain the MAGA camp's large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants, which could cause inflation, with the two groups checking each other's extreme pledges and promoting self-correction.

The Economist concluded, "For the first time, a tech wave is sweeping Washington DC, and their worldview sharply conflicts with the MAGA movement," adding, "How this tension is resolved and who gains the upper hand will have a profound impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets over the next four years."