"The Need for Korea-US-Japan Cooperation Grows but Outlook Remains Bleak... Trump Expected to Seek New Alliances"

"US, Stranded Alliances with South Korea and Japan... Passing the Peak of Tripartism"

Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow and Korea expert at the conservative American think tank Heritage Foundation, diagnosed that while the importance of trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan has increased due to North Korea's missile launches and the strengthening of the North Korea-Russia alliance, the prospects for cooperation have darkened due to domestic political circumstances in South Korea and Japan.

In a report posted on the Heritage Foundation website on the 8th (local time), Klingner stated that the Donald Trump administration would seek reliable allies and partners to counter the growing threats from North Korea and China.

President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump. Photo by AP Yonhap News

Klingner referred to the incident on the 6th when North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile presumed to be a hypersonic missile during a U.S.-South Korea foreign ministers' meeting while U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken was visiting South Korea. He noted that while the missile launch could have been a test for additional missile development, the provocation during a high-level visit was a signal, and its meaning has become a subject of intense debate among Korea experts. This could be interpreted as dismissing speculation that exchanges between the U.S. and North Korea would resume under a second Trump administration.

He pointed out that although then-President-elect Trump boasted about his relationship with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, North Korea declared last August that it had no interest in dialogue with the U.S. regardless of the election outcome. He also said that regardless of North Korea’s intended message, the missile launch underscores the importance of trilateral security cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.

Just a few months ago, the foreign and security policies of the three countries were almost perfectly aligned. The biggest uncertainty was the possibility that U.S. policy might change under a second Trump administration.

However, Klingner criticized that the South Korean ship has run aground due to President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law. He predicted that if the Constitutional Court accepts President Yoon’s impeachment, the Democratic Party is likely to win the early presidential election, and the new president will return to a conciliatory approach toward China and North Korea, an aggressive nationalist policy toward Japan, and a reduction of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

He evaluated that despite fierce internal criticism, President Yoon boldly approached Japan, reviving reconciliation between South Korea and Japan and trilateral military cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. However, he diagnosed that Yoon’s recent actions have endangered all the achievements built over the past few years in establishing a joint response to regional security issues.

Regarding Japan, he pointed out that when Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba decided to hold an early general election last October, the Liberal Democratic Party failed to secure a majority for the first time in 15 years. He said, "The Japanese ship may still be heading in the same direction as before, but its sails are faltering," adding, "The captain now has to put all policy issues to a crew vote, and all bills, including the pledged fund to double defense spending, must gain opposition party consent."

Klingner analyzed that South Korea and Japan were considered solid and reliable allies until recently, but now the U.S. is allied with two ships that are running aground. He stated, "We have likely seen the peak of trilateralism," and "The outlook for policy success is darker than just a few months ago."