US New Population Strategy... Undocumented Immigrants Red Card vs Tech Talent Red Carpet [Tech Talk]

Controversy in Trump Camp Over H-1B Expansion
Strict on Undocumented Immigrants, 'Red Carpet' for Tech Talent
Potential to Materialize as New US Population Strategy

As the moment approaches for President-elect Donald Trump to enter the White House, the 'population strategy' of the second Trump administration is gradually taking shape.

Due to his tough stance on illegal immigrants, there have been predictions that a new America might emerge with 'barriers' against foreign labor, but there is also a significant possibility that a completely different scenario will unfold. Perhaps the U.S. will pursue a differentiated approach, deporting illegal immigrants while rolling out the 'red carpet' for outstanding STEM university students.

Tech Entrepreneurs and MAGA Confirm Temperature Differences over H-1B

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News.

Key figures in the second Trump administration still appear to be a 'one team,' but at least their views on immigration seem to differ greatly. Earlier, the debate over the U.S. H-1B visa revealed these differences in stance.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, argued that the H-1B program was the driving force behind his ability to build companies like Tesla and SpaceX in the U.S., and insisted it should be "expanded further." On the other hand, members of the so-called 'MAGA' camp, Trump’s staunch supporters, strongly opposed it.

When Trump declared on the 28th of last month (local time) that "I have always supported H-1B," siding with CEO Musk, the debate was temporarily settled, but the conflict has not yet been fully resolved. On social media platforms like 'X,' MAGA users continue to flood posts targeting CEO Musk.

Foreign skilled workers can easily stay in the United States through the H-1B visa. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

The H-1B is a U.S. professional talent supply program. Talents in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields who have employer sponsorship are allowed to stay in the U.S. for a basic period of 3 years, extendable up to 6 years. From a corporate perspective, it is an attractive program because it allows companies to recruit tech talent from abroad that is hard to find domestically. Although the annual visa cap is only about 85,000, many startups have grown into giant companies thanks to the H-1B program.

In other words, from the perspective of business leaders like CEO Musk who build tech companies, there is no reason to evaluate H-1B negatively. However, recently in the U.S., there have been frequent criticisms that H-1B has deviated from its original purpose. Originally, this program was intended to attract 'highly skilled' foreign talent, but due to corporate abuse, it has now become a means to lower the value of tech talent.

To prevent abuse, H-1B sets a minimum salary threshold for sponsored talents, but it is only about $60,000 (approximately 88 million KRW), which critics say is out of touch with the reality of the U.S. IT industry, where the average salary is around $100,000 (approximately 147 million KRW).

Deporting Illegal Immigrants and Rolling Out the Red Carpet for Tech Talent... A New U.S. Population Strategy?

However, the real conflict within the Trump camp regarding tech talent may be triggered by something other than H-1B. Earlier, Trump stated on a local podcast in June that "Green cards should be issued to students who graduate from American universities."

Although the Trump camp immediately clarified that "only students who have undergone green card screening will be issued green cards," this statement shows that Trump is not simply an 'anti-immigration supporter.'

International students are another means of attracting talent to the United States. AP Yonhap News

International students are an even more powerful 'secret weapon' for the U.S. IT industry than H-1B. Today, universities that dominate the top 1 to 50 rankings globally are mostly in the U.S. and the U.K., so outstanding foreign students come to study at Anglo-American universities. They are a financial resource that supports university budgets by paying higher tuition fees than domestic students, and at the same time, they serve as a continuous supply of excellent talent to the U.S.

As of last year, about 1.1 million international students entered the U.S. annually, with the U.K. ranking second at about 760,000. If automatic green cards were issued to these more than one million talents, it would be difficult to estimate the impact on the U.S. tech industry as well as the population structure.

Tom Homan, former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and appointed as the border 'czar' of the second Trump administration, has sparked controversy with his tough measures against illegal immigration. In an interview with The Washington Post released on the 26th of last month, he claimed that detention and isolation facilities could be reinstated to expel illegal residents. Trump has also repeatedly stated on social media that military forces such as the National Guard and federal troops could be mobilized to carry out deportation operations.

Conversely, Trump seems to maintain a very 'lenient' view toward talents who can help the domestic U.S. economy, especially tech talent. If his political stance materializes into future U.S. immigration policy, a 'dual population strategy' might become a reality where low-wage foreign workers, including illegal immigrants, are expelled, but global talents continue to flow in.