Impact of Early General Elections in Major Countries like Germany and Japan
Election Prospects in Korea if Yoon's Impeachment is Upheld
Following 2024, known as the 'super election year' with over 70 countries holding presidential, general, and local elections, various elections are expected to take place around the globe again this year. This is a consequence of early elections being confirmed one after another in major countries such as Germany and Japan due to the fall of ruling powers.
The foreign affairs magazine Foreign Policy (FP) introduced on the 2nd (local time) twelve confirmed presidential and general elections worldwide scheduled for this year, stating, "From the perspective of global elections, 2025 will be quieter than last year but by no means insignificant."
First, the federal parliamentary election will be held in Germany on the 23rd of next month. Originally, the general election was scheduled for the end of 2025 when the four-year term of German parliamentarians ends, but early elections were realized after Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition government collapsed due to a no-confidence vote in parliament last November. In particular, internal conflicts over economic policies such as social welfare spending involving the Free Democratic Party (FDP), one of the coalition partners, dealt a blow to their approval ratings.
Although Chancellor Scholz is eager to seek re-election, it is expected to be difficult for his Social Democratic Party (SPD) to become the leading party. According to a recent public opinion poll, the support rates by party were highest for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance, Germany's main opposition parties, at 32%. The CDU-CSU alliance has nominated Friedrich Merz as their candidate for chancellor. Following them, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ranks second with 18.5%, followed by SPD (16%) and the Green Party (13%).
In the neighboring Czech Republic, a general election to elect all 200 members of the Chamber of Deputies is scheduled to take place by October. The key question is whether the ruling coalition 'SPOLU,' led by current Prime Minister Petr Fiala, will succeed in retaining power. Currently, the populist opposition party 'ANO' appears to have the upper hand. Poland will elect a new president in May. President Andrzej Duda, who took office in 2015 and was re-elected once, is serving his final term this year due to the Polish constitution limiting presidents to two terms. It is expected that the Law and Justice Party (PiS), to which Duda belongs, and the Civic Coalition (KO), led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, will fiercely compete, with polls showing KO holding a slight lead over PiS.
Among Asia-Pacific countries, Japan, Singapore, and Australia are preparing for elections. After suffering a crushing defeat in the House of Representatives election last October and facing a minority government, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will face a critical test of its political momentum in the Upper House (House of Councillors) election scheduled for July. Although the Upper House has relatively less power than the Lower House, the election results reflecting public sentiment could influence the future political landscape. The Ishiba Shigeru Cabinet is currently navigating a political tightrope, with support rates remaining in the 30% range according to recent polls conducted by Kyodo News and Mainichi Shimbun. Some speculate that due to low approval ratings and weakened political momentum, the Ishiba Cabinet might dissolve the Lower House and hold simultaneous elections for both houses.
In Australia, the federal election scheduled for May is expected to be a contest between the center-left ruling Labor Party and the conservative opposition Liberal Party. Australia, a member of the trilateral military alliance AUKUS formed by the United States in 2021, has pursued a tough stance against China, but since the Labor government took office following the 2022 general election, a reconciliation atmosphere with China has emerged. If the Liberal Party regains power in this election, significant changes in Australia's foreign policy are anticipated.
In Singapore, a general election will be held in November. However, since the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) has maintained an overwhelming position as the dominant party since 1959, there is little uncertainty about the election outcome.
In North America, an early general election is possible in Canada. The progressive New Democratic Party (NDP), which has been in a policy alliance with the ruling Liberal Party, has announced plans to submit a no-confidence motion against the government by the end of this month. If the motion passes, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be forced to step down.
In South America, Chile is scheduled to hold a presidential election by November. Chile adopts a single-term presidency, so current President Gabriel Boric will not run in the election. Experts widely agree that with Boric's left-leaning administration's approval rating languishing in the 30% range, the conservative opposition is likely to take power. Ecuador will hold a presidential election on the 9th of next month. The key point of interest is whether 37-year-old President Daniel Noboa Azin will defend his title as the youngest head of state. Additionally, Bolivia will hold elections in August, and Cameroon and Tanzania will hold presidential elections in October.
South Korea is also a potential candidate for elections this year. Foreign Policy pointed out the possibility of a presidential election in South Korea this year if the Constitutional Court accepts the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol. The media assessed that "since Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election last November, governments worldwide have been busy readjusting their political directions."
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