On the Brink of Crisis Even with Acting Authority... How to Handle the 'Diplomatic Normalcy Gap'

Impeachment Proceedings at a Crossroads for President and Acting President
Loss of Diplomatic Anchor... How to Manage Alliances and Allies
Incoming Trump Second Term, Full of Unfavorable Agendas

With Han Duck-soo, the Acting President and Prime Minister, also facing impeachment, damage to our diplomacy is inevitable. Although communication channels with key countries shaken by the state of emergency martial law are gradually being restored, the unprecedented chaos of an 'Acting President impeachment' is widely expected to shake our international credibility once again. Above all, there are significant concerns about responding to the 'Trump 2nd term,' which is less than a month away from inauguration.

If the Acting President System Collapses, a Drop in Credibility Is Inevitable

Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is receiving a status report during his visit to the Jungbu Fire Station in Seoul on the 24th to mark the year-end and New Year period. Photo by Yonhap News

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 26th, First Vice Minister Kim Hong-gyun met with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in the United States on the 23rd (local time) and agreed to resume diplomatic and security schedules, and he is visiting Japan to continue his schedule until today.

The diplomatic schedule, which had come to a complete halt after the state of emergency martial law, reached a turning point with the activation of the Han Acting President system. The Biden administration, which needs to manage achievements toward the end of its term, also appeared to support Han’s efforts to normalize state affairs. Minister Cho Tae-yeol communicated with the foreign ministers of the U.S., Japan, and China, urging cooperation.

However, if the opposition party’s impeachment motion against Acting President Han becomes a reality, it is highly likely that the challenges will be greater than before. Assurances of our credibility, such as 'a safe country to travel to' and 'continue investing in the Korean market,' are based on the premise that the 'acting president system is stable.' This premise would collapse.

The greatest concern as both the president, who should be the focal point of diplomacy, and his acting counterpart face impeachment is the management of alliances and friendships. The U.S. will inaugurate the 'Trump 2nd term' administration in January next year, but our government’s activities remain focused on the current administration. Next year also marks the 60th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Korea and Japan.

'Trump 2nd Term' Soon to Begin... Difficult to Respond to Unfavorable Agendas

Donald Trump was inaugurated during the impeachment phase of former President Park Geun-hye’s administration. Given that his second term is also amid an impeachment crisis, it is difficult to expect a favorable impression toward Korea.

Although President-elect Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, 'Korea' has not been mentioned by him. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs official said, "If an official invitation is received, we plan to review the specific details."

It is not easy to respond to uncertainties in a situation where the diplomatic centerpiece, the 'head of state,' is lost. The U.S. Congressional Research Service even issued a report stating that if agendas significantly affecting Korea-U.S. relations, such as changes in tariff policies or adjustments to the role of U.S. Forces Korea, are pursued, Korea under an acting president system would be at a disadvantage. It is unreasonable to expect that President-elect Trump, who values personal relationships, would negotiate with the acting president or the next in line.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is trying to maintain smooth communication with the Trump transition team, but there was no related contact during First Vice Minister Kim Hong-gyun’s recent visit to the U.S. In this situation, President-elect Trump nominated Elbridge Colby, who has expressed skepticism about North Korean denuclearization, as Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy. If the diplomatic leadership vacuum continues, it is not possible to rule out the possibility of security issues escalating.