Trump's "Trudo Jooji" Remark Shakes International Order [AK Radio]

'Crazy' Strategy Response to Canadian Tariff Issues
Trudeau Administration Faces Collapse Crisis Next Month
Must Quickly End Political Instability and Negotiate with the US

Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, has caused an international uproar with his shocking statement about making Canada the United States' '51st state.' On the 18th, Trump posted on his social media, "No one can answer why we provide Canada with over $100 million in annual U.S. subsidies," and claimed, "Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st state of the U.S." He added, "They could save significantly on taxes and military protection costs. I think it's a great idea," concluding with the phrase '51st state!!!'

This is analyzed not as a mere spontaneous remark but as a calculated move. Last year, Canada recorded a trade surplus of over $68 billion with the U.S. It ranks as the 6th largest trading partner in terms of U.S. export and import volume. Particularly, Canada exports 75% of its raw materials such as oil and steel to the U.S., and imports more than 56% of its goods from the U.S., showing a close economic connection.

Trump had already announced immediately after his election victory that he would impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico. This hints at a repeat of the trade disputes over steel tariffs during his first term in 2018. At that time, relations between the two countries escalated into conflicts over mask and vaccine exports amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with Prime Minister Trudeau responding firmly with retaliatory tariffs.

Reuters Yonhap News

Moreover, Trump has recently continued blatant provocations by demoting Prime Minister Trudeau to 'governor.' This is interpreted as a serious provocation beyond diplomatic rudeness, deliberately lowering the status of the Canadian Prime Minister, who is a head of state on par with the U.S. President.

Canada is currently facing a severe internal crisis. The Trudeau government is confronted with the possibility of a no-confidence vote passing in Parliament on January 27 next year, and the economic situation is worsening. Inflation, which soared to 8-9% annually during the COVID-19 period, has plummeted to around 1.6%, and economic growth is limited to about 0.6%. The immigration barrier relaxation policy implemented to prevent economic slowdown has instead caused a sharp rise in housing prices, accelerating internal public discontent.

Experts analyze Trump's remarks as part of the so-called 'madman strategy.' This strategy shows weakness to the strong and strength to the weak, particularly targeting politically unstable opponents. CNN analyzed, "Trump's willingness to interfere in the domestic politics of allied countries will serve as a warning to governments of countries like South Korea, France, and Germany, which are politically unstable and internally divided, making counterattacks difficult."

The relationship between the U.S. and Canada has historically been complex. Until before World War I, the two countries had strained relations due to conflicts during British colonial times. During the War of 1812 to 1815, British troops bombed Washington D.C., resulting in the White House catching fire. It is said that the current White House’s white color was to cover the burn marks from that fire.

However, through World Wars I and II, the two countries developed a blood alliance. Especially during the Cold War, as British influence waned, Canada shifted its diplomatic course to strengthen its alliance with the U.S. Until before Trump's first administration, the two countries maintained an exemplary neighborly relationship.

Reuters Yonhap News

What is more concerning is that Trump's approach could lead to a weakening of U.S. global leadership. Trump has shown skepticism toward traditional alliances such as NATO. Especially as Russia has significantly depleted its conventional forces in the Ukraine war, the U.S. appears to judge that the importance of European security has diminished.

This raises concerns that the future international order could regress to a 19th-century-style unlimited arms race. The ongoing local conflicts such as the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict could escalate into larger full-scale wars. Particularly in situations where geopolitical tensions in various regions may intensify, the absence of a U.S. mediator role could become a serious problem.

Trump's isolationist policy focuses on improving the U.S. trade balance. Countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S., such as China, Mexico, Germany, Canada, and South Korea, are expected to be primary targets. Among these, countries experiencing political turmoil may be more vulnerable to U.S. demands.

This situation is also expected to directly affect the security environment in the Northeast Asia region. Especially since the Korean Peninsula is considered one of the world's 'powder kegs,' a reduction in the U.S. role could further exacerbate regional security instability. The new Trump administration is expected to show indifference to the military difficulties of its allies and prioritize its own national interests.

Ultimately, Trump's remarks about Canada are interpreted not just as provocations but as a signal of the forthcoming U.S. isolationist foreign policy and America-first nationalism. This raises the need for allies to strengthen their own defense capabilities and establish new security strategies. Countries experiencing political instability are particularly vulnerable to these changes, making domestic political stabilization and thorough preparation for the new international order essential at this time.

Editor's NoteThis content is also available on Asia Economy's economic podcast 'AK Radio.' AK Radio is a platform that provides investors with essential information on politics, economy, international affairs, tech, bio, and digital trends. Clicking the video play button in the article allows you to hear the reporter's actual voice. This article is a reorganization of the content broadcast on AK Radio through ChatGPT.