[The Editors' Verdict] The Calendar Transformed by Martial Law

Mr. A, in his 50s, joined a mid-sized company in 2000 and devoted a quarter of a century to the same company. He is the sole breadwinner with university and high school-aged children. Considering his salary, the four major social insurances, and tuition fees, he wanted to endure at the company until retirement, but it was not easy. For the past two years, he has been preparing to start a restaurant business, working unpaid at successful restaurants and visiting major franchise headquarters for consultations. After much deliberation, he decided to open a restaurant next year in the metropolitan area, where many office workers reside. When I met Mr. A recently, he said he postponed his startup due to the 12·3 martial law, was working part-time at an acquaintance’s company, and was considering various possibilities such as starting a business or reemployment. Mr. A said, "Since something I never imagined happened, even acquaintances running restaurants advised me against it, saying, ‘Now is not the time. I’m struggling too.’"

Kyung-ho Lee, Head of Issue & Trend Team

Mr. A is not the only one whose life calendar was disrupted by the martial law. According to a survey by the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Business (conducted from the 10th to the 12th with 505 small business owners and self-employed individuals), half of the respondents (46.9%) reported direct or indirect damage since December due to the martial law and impeachment crisis. Among those who said they were not affected, half (46.6%) believed there was a possibility of being affected. Four out of ten respondents predicted that the uncertainty in the domestic economy would continue for one to two years.

Companies entering emergency management have been hit with a massive bombshell amid sluggish domestic demand and difficulties preparing for Donald Trump Season 2. Restructuring is already underway in sectors such as food and beverage and distribution, while industries like semiconductors, petrochemicals, construction, and nuclear power face increased uncertainty due to martial law and impeachment issues. The sharp rise in the won-dollar exchange rate is also a burden for companies heavily dependent on imported raw materials. Duty-free shops and the travel industry are worried about a decline in overseas group tourists. The government, companies, and the National Assembly need to respond as one team in line with the Trump administration’s inauguration, but even this is proving difficult. The National Assembly’s testimony law, opposed by the business community, was temporarily relieved when Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, acting president, exercised his veto power. However, if this law is reconsidered in the National Assembly or if the business community’s concerns about amendments to the Commercial Act pass the plenary session, it will be a crisis both internally and externally. As companies revise their hiring plans, the job market for job seekers has become narrower.

The government bureaucracy’s clock has also stopped. They are about to announce next year’s economic policy direction, but how persuasive can it be to present a rosy blueprint and claim smooth implementation in this situation? Civil servants, who have become scapegoats despite being innocent, are busy protecting themselves. Their salaries have stagnated for years, and the only support was promotions and personnel changes, which have effectively come to a halt. The higher-ups need to be reorganized first, but no one is in a position to exercise personnel authority as before. If an early presidential election leads to a regime change, another personnel storm will blow, dividing fortunes.

The shock of martial law continues now and will persist for some time with an uncertain outcome. As stated in a declaration by 510 psychiatrists, many citizens who remember the history of military dictatorship and state violence could not help but feel serious fear as they re-experienced that trauma. President Yoon Suk-yeol said the reason for declaring martial law was to protect liberal democracy and the constitutional order, but it destroyed liberal democracy and the constitutional order. Moreover, it inflicted severe trauma on economic agents, rendering the plans painstakingly made for the livelihoods of ordinary people and the overall corporate economy useless. While there was no expectation that politics would make the lives and minds of the people comfortable, no one imagined it would be destroyed so ruthlessly.