[The Viewpoint of Dongki Kim] The World Stunned by the Collapse of the Syrian Regime, Uncertain Middle East Situation

Syrian Government Collapses After 13 Years of Civil War
Deprived of Support from Russia and Iran
Israel Annexes Syrian Territory
T?rkiye Moves to Expand Its Influence

On the 8th, an event that shocked the world occurred. Syrian rebel forces captured the capital Damascus, leading to the collapse of the Assad regime. This happened just 12 days after the rebels launched a large-scale offensive in northwestern Syria. It has been 13 years since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. Since Hafez al-Assad established his regime in Syria in 1971, power was maintained for 53 years through his son, President Bashar al-Assad. However, Syria has always been plagued by division and conflict.

The main anti-government force, the Islamic militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was founded in 2012 under the name "Al-Nusra Front." The United States designated the group's leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, as an international terrorist and placed a bounty on him. The rebel strongholds are Aleppo and Idlib, bordering T?rkiye, where not only HTS but also other rebel factions were present. Since 2022, T?rkiye has supported the military training of HTS members. T?rkiye backed HTS with the aim of repelling the Kurdish forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are based in northern Syria, to prevent the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.

Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group supported by Iran that played a crucial role in pushing back the rebels in the early stages of the civil war, recently suffered significant damage due to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Additionally, Iranian military commanders in Syria were eliminated by Israeli airstrikes, and supply lines to pro-government militias were weakened. Russia, which is friendly to Syria, was also distracted due to the war in Ukraine. Ultimately, the Syrian government forces, which lacked external support and were internally weak, collapsed easily.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu (front row, left) visiting Mount Hermon, Syrian territory annexed to the Golan Heights on the 17th. Photo by AP and Yonhap News

Meanwhile, Israel gained significant benefits as the Syrian opposition forces overthrew President Assad, who was supported by their arch-enemies Iran and Hezbollah. Supply lines to Hezbollah attacking northern Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip were cut off. However, after the Syrian government collapsed, Israel occupied Syrian territory 14 km from the Golan Heights. Israel had been attacking Syria to suppress Iranian-backed armed groups within Syria, but it seems determined not to miss the opportunity to expand its territory following the regime's fall.

T?rkiye, which shares a border with northern Syria, is also busy pursuing its national interests. After the collapse of the Syrian regime, Turkish forces began attacking the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces that control northwestern Syria. T?rkiye may also attempt to annex or effectively control Kurdish regions in northern Syria and northern Iraq under the banner of Neo-Ottomanism. President Erdo?an might even try to extend his influence up to the Israeli border.

Currently, Iran is witnessing the collapse of the network it called the "Axis of Resistance." Hezbollah has suffered severe damage, and the al-Assad regime has been ousted. Weakened, Iran will likely accelerate its development of nuclear weapons as a last line of defense. Recently, President-elect Trump has shown interest in new nuclear negotiations with Iran, but after 20 years of efforts, it is uncertain whether Iran, now closer than ever to possessing nuclear weapons, will agree.

The direction of the Syrian crisis, which carries significant international implications, remains shrouded in uncertainty. HTS has promised Syrian unity, but the feasibility is unclear. Power struggles among various Syrian armed groups could lead to widespread violence. Unfortunately, since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Middle East has been fragmented and has yet to establish stable nation-states. Syria, entangled in internal divisions and external forces, may become another powder keg in the Middle East.

Kim Dong-gi, author of 'The Power of the Dollar' and attorney