US Expert: "Han Deok-su and Trump Bilateral Talks Unlikely"... Growing Concerns Over 'Korea Passing'

Bruce Klingner, Researcher at the Heritage Foundation, USA

Even if Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, takes office in January next year, it is expected in the U.S. that it will be difficult to hold a bilateral summit between South Korea and the U.S. until South Korea's leadership is normalized. Although Trump mentioned Japan, China, Russia, and even North Korea during his first press conference after winning the election the day before, he skipped any mention of South Korea, raising growing concerns that the 'Korea passing' in Trump's second term could accelerate amid the recent emergency martial law and impeachment crisis.

Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow and Northeast Asia expert at the Heritage Foundation, a U.S. think tank, said on the 17th (local time) during a discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), "If Han Duck-soo, the acting president and prime minister, attends multilateral meetings with President-elect Trump, they might meet each other, but the likelihood of Trump visiting South Korea or the opposite scenario (Han visiting the U.S.) is low."

Despite urgent issues with the U.S., such as tariff hikes, increased costs for the U.S. military presence in South Korea (defense cost-sharing), and the North Korean nuclear crisis, concerns are growing that due to the leadership vacuum in South Korea, not only will a 'package deal' between leaders be difficult, but also a swift and sophisticated response to the diplomatic and trade policies of Trump's second term will be virtually impossible.

Klingner predicted that there could be significant changes in South Korea's security policy due to the emergency martial law declaration and lifting situation.

He evaluated that President Yoon Seok-youl, who is currently suspended from duty due to impeachment proceedings, strengthened the Korea-U.S. alliance and established a Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation system through improved relations with Japan. However, he anticipated that if the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment passed by the National Assembly, leading to an early presidential election and a change of government between the ruling and opposition parties, changes in South Korea's security policy would be inevitable.

Klingner forecasted, "They (the Democratic Party of Korea) will be much more conciliatory toward North Korea and China," and "They will approach Japan more nationalistically." Regarding the impact on the Korea-U.S. alliance, he analyzed, "The progressive camp in South Korea is somewhat more indifferent to the alliance and tends to criticize the U.S. rather than North Korea concerning the escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula," adding, "This is something the Trump administration does not want to hear."

He particularly diagnosed that the U.S. needs cooperation with South Korea and Japan to contain China, and if the allies do not play their roles, relations could become strained.

Klingner also introduced media reports suggesting that President-elect Trump might engage in direct North Korea-U.S. talks, and predicted that if such a bilateral meeting is realized, the Democratic Party of Korea would welcome it.