Early Presidential Election Expected as Soon as April Next Year
Possible Negative Impact on Ruling Party Candidates
Positive Factors for Opposition, Potential Candidates Begin to Move
On the 14th, as the impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol passed the National Assembly, there is speculation that an 'early presidential election' could be held as soon as April next year. While the ruling party's candidate pool is facing a 'red light' due to impeachment and party collapse, the stock of the main opposition candidate, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, appears to be rising.
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, Han Dong-hoon, leader of the People Power Party. Yonhap News Agency
Presidential election possible as early as April, or by May-June at the latest
This is the third time in constitutional history that an incumbent president’s impeachment motion has passed the National Assembly, following former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun in 2004 and Park Geun-hye in 2016. On the same day, the Constitutional Court received the impeachment resolution and began the formal judgment process.
Whether an early presidential election will be held depends on the Constitutional Court’s ruling. If the court dismisses or rejects the impeachment motion, the next scheduled presidential election will be held in 2027 as planned.
However, at present, there is a high possibility that the election will be held as early as April next year, or by May to June at the latest. According to the Constitutional Court Act, the court must deliver a verdict within 180 days after receiving the case. If the impeachment is upheld, the president will be removed from office, and a presidential election must be held within 60 days. Previously, the impeachment trials from the National Assembly’s resolution to the verdict took 63 days for former President Roh Moo-hyun and 91 days for former President Park Geun-hye.
Impeachment of Yoon signals 'green light' for opposition candidates
Ruling party hopefuls find themselves in a position where they must consider running under adverse conditions. Among the ruling party, Han Dong-hoon, leader of the People Power Party, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo are mentioned as potential candidates.
Leader Han has distanced himself from the party by expressing support for the impeachment motion, contrary to the party line. Immediately after the impeachment motion was passed, he emphasized, "I believe I have done all that I needed to do."
Mayor Oh also expressed on the 12th that the People Power Party should support the impeachment motion as the party line. On the day of the vote, he said, "With a heavy heart, I apologize once again to the people," and stressed, "The urgent task now is 'social and economic stability.'"
Conservative and centrist politicians who have criticized the Yoon administration, such as People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, and Reform New Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok, may also challenge the presidency.
Favorable conditions for opposition, Lee Jae-myung’s stock rises
On the other hand, Lee Jae-myung, who competed against Yoon Suk-yeol in the last presidential election, is seeing his stock rise. If an early election is held, Lee is highly likely to become the Democratic Party’s candidate. He has recently ranked first overwhelmingly in various opinion polls.
According to the 'Next Presidential Candidate Suitability' poll conducted by Embrain Public on behalf of News1 on the 10th among 1,005 voters nationwide and released on the 12th (95% confidence level ±3.1 percentage points, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website), Lee recorded a double-digit figure of 37% alone.
Lee has recently shown signs of expanding toward the center, seemingly aware of the possibility of a presidential election. A representative example is the Democratic Party’s sudden decision to agree to the government’s policy of a two-year postponement of taxation on virtual asset investment income and the abolition of the financial investment income tax. Lee also visited Daegu and Gyeongbuk (TK), the 'heart of conservatism,' as his first regional schedule in December.
However, unresolved judicial risks remain a variable. On the 15th of last month, Lee was sentenced to one year in prison with a two-year suspended sentence in a trial for violating the Public Official Election Act. He also faces three remaining trials related to charges of breach of trust involving Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, and Wirye New Town, as well as bribery allegations related to Seongnam FC sponsorship funds.
Meanwhile, movements among potential opposition candidates are also being detected. Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon, former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, and former Gyeongnam Province Governor Kim Kyung-soo have shown their presence around the time of the emergency martial law situation.
Governor Kim has recently shown attempts to differentiate himself by opposing Lee’s flagship bill, the '25,000 won universal support law.' Former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum has also voiced opposition to the impeachment push against Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, expressing his stance on party issues. Former Governor Kim Kyung-soo hurriedly returned from studying in Germany due to the martial law situation and began movements such as visiting former President Moon Jae-in.
All three made their presence felt by posting statements on Facebook before and after the impeachment vote. Governor Kim said on the day, "The path to creating a completely new Republic of Korea has now begun," and added, "I too will stand with the great people until the end."
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