[Opinion] The 'U Fear' Brought by Ilbeol

Kurt Campbell, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, was resolute. On the day after President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law, April 4, he immediately criticized it as a “badly misjudged” decision. Although he used indirect speech to soften his words, he even called it “illegitimate.” Such strong language is rare in diplomatic discourse. This indicates how absurd the matter was. The “illegitimate” declaration of martial law opened the gate to the hell of “uncertainty.”

One week later, South Korea is engulfed in the “fear of U (uncertainty).” There was an opportunity to defuse this trigger within the week: the presidential impeachment process. However, this effort stalled without even opening the lid in the National Assembly due to a lack of quorum.

Now, the aftermath must be borne entirely by the people and businesses. The so-called “martial law cost” and “impeachment cost.” The U.S. economic magazine Forbes pointed out, “The price will be paid in installments by South Korea’s 51 million citizens.” Since the amount is large and will have to be repaid over a long time, this is a biting sarcasm hitting the core.

Let’s look at these one by one.

Above all, the nation’s dignity has been severely damaged. The status of being the world’s 8th largest power and one of the top 10 economies has been tarnished. International credit rating agencies such as S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch warned that “if South Korea’s political risk prolongs, there will be downward pressure on credit ratings.” The national recognition painstakingly built through K-Culture, K-Food, and more has faded. Is it reasonable that South Korea is considered a travel risk country in 2024?

The soaring exchange rate is also a concern. The won-dollar exchange rate, which was once a critical threshold at the 1,400 won level, is likely to remain fixed there for the time being. There are even worries it could rise further to the 1,500 won level.

The stock market has been hit with one disaster after another. Funds have already been flowing out of the Korean stock market toward the U.S. stock market and virtual assets, causing supply and demand to collapse. On top of this, the unexpected shocks of martial law and impeachment have overlapped. Foreign investors have turned their backs, selling off more than 1 trillion won in the Korean stock market. Although institutions like the National Pension Service are struggling to support it, it is insufficient. A weak market seems inevitable for the time being.

Urgent issues such as budget approval, amendments to the Semiconductor Act and Capital Market Act, and inheritance tax reform have all come to a halt. While competing countries are advancing, South Korea is effectively falling behind.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama, speaking at a forum after South Korea’s martial law incident, said, “The core of democracy is the willingness to show some ‘tolerance’ toward those who see or think differently from us,” adding, “This is difficult even in relatively homogeneous countries. Look at what happened in South Korea this week.” He seemed to regard South Korea as a “relatively homogeneous country” in terms of race, ethnicity, and religion. However, just like the U.S., South Korea is already a politically divided and heterogeneous country. That is why such a chaotic event occurred, and yet one side is only watching the “impeachment clock” (the Democratic Party aiming for an early presidential election after impeachment), while the other side is watching the “trial clock” (the People Power Party aiming to hold the presidential election after the judicial risk outcome of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung), thereby fueling the “fear of U.” Fourth-rate politicians and third-rate bureaucrats are strangling second-rate companies and first-rate citizens. It is sad that the rhetoric of former Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-hee from 30 years ago still holds true.