New York Stock Market Steady Ahead of This Week's Inflation Data... Nvidia Falls 2%

Fed Enters Blackout Ahead of Nov 18 FOMC
This Week's Nov CPI and PPI Announcements
NVIDIA Drops Amid China Antitrust Investigation

The three major indices of the U.S. New York stock market showed mixed movements near the flat line in early trading on the 9th (local time). As Federal Reserve (Fed) officials entered a 'blackout' period refraining from comments on monetary policy ahead of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting, investors are focusing on the inflation data to be released this week.

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As of 9:52 a.m. in the New York stock market, the blue-chip-focused Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was trading at 44,646.61, up 0.01% from the previous trading day. The large-cap-focused S&P 500 index was down 0.12% at 6,083.05, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index was down 0.01% at 19,857.94.

By individual stocks, AI leader Nvidia was down 2.06%. The stock fell after China’s State Administration for Market Regulation launched an investigation into Nvidia for alleged violations of antitrust laws. Nvidia is accused of violating some conditions imposed by Chinese authorities for approval during its acquisition of Mellanox. Apple rose 0.47%, Microsoft (MS) was down 0.22%, and Tesla was up 2.49%.

Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at record highs, rising 1% and 3.3%, respectively. The Dow closed down 0.6%.

The November nonfarm payrolls report released on the 6th showed stronger-than-expected job growth but was not enough to dampen expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 last month. This exceeded both October’s 36,000 increase, which was sharply reduced due to two hurricanes and a Boeing strike, and experts’ forecast of 202,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% from the previous month but met market expectations.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the federal funds futures market on this day priced in an 85.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December FOMC meeting. The probability of holding rates steady was 14.4%.

Jeremy Siegel, a professor at the Wharton School, said, "Everything else is going exactly as the Fed wants," and predicted, "There will be one rate cut on December 18, and only two to three cuts next year."

This week, investors are awaiting inflation data. On the 11th, the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Experts expect the CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, maintaining the same level as in October. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, to be released the following day on the 12th, is estimated to have increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, with the rise expanding compared to October’s 0.2% and 2.4%, respectively.

Government bond yields are on the rise. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, a global bond yield benchmark, rose 3 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage points) from the previous trading day to 4.18%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to monetary policy, increased 2 basis points to 4.12%.

International oil prices are climbing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose $1.18 (1.76%) from the previous day to $68.38 per barrel, and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, increased $1.07 (1.5%) to $72.19 per barrel.