'The Stage Is Set'... Is It Possible to Secure 200 Seats for Yoon's Impeachment Motion?

Impeachment Vote at 7 PM on the 7th
Ruling Party Decides to Oppose Impeachment Early Morning on the 5th
Opposition Holds Total 192 Seats... Securing 8 Votes is Key

As the impeachment motion against President Yoon Seok-yeol was reported to the National Assembly plenary session in the early hours of the 5th, securing the quorum for the impeachment vote has become a hot topic in the political sphere. The six opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, have formed a united front and entered the impeachment political situation, starting from President Yoon's declaration of martial law. The Democratic Party has decided to hold a vote on the impeachment motion against President Yoon at 7 p.m. on the 7th.

According to the National Assembly Act, the impeachment motion must be voted on between 24 hours and 72 hours after being reported to the plenary session. The opposition parties are rushing the impeachment process, judging that President Yoon might launch a second local conflict with North Korea to overcome the failure of martial law. The worsening public opinion due to the 'martial law' situation is also considered an opportune moment to vote on the impeachment motion. If the impeachment motion passes the National Assembly, the president's duties will be suspended. Currently, excluding the People Power Party, the total opposition seats amount to 192, but the quorum for passing the impeachment motion is 'at least two-thirds of the total members,' which is 200 seats.

Ultimately, at least 8 votes in favor from the People Power Party are needed for the impeachment motion to pass. At present, this is unpredictable. On the night of the 3rd, during the vote on the resolution to lift martial law, 18 People Power Party members voted in favor, which seemed to support the analysis that it was the best time to gain the ruling party's support for the president's impeachment. At that time, the handshake between Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, and Han Dong-hoon, leader of the People Power Party, in the plenary session was interpreted as a symbol of 'the start of cooperation.' However, two days later, in the early hours of this day, the People Power Party officially decided to oppose President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment motion.

In political circles, the core reason the People Power Party opposes the president's impeachment is believed to be their certainty of a 'crushing defeat' for the ruling party if an early presidential election is held. In fact, if the Constitutional Court decides on impeachment, a new president must be elected within 60 days. Even within the ruling party, there is agreement that President Yoon's martial law declaration became the smoking gun for impeachment, but the prevailing atmosphere is that handing over power should be avoided. The general perception is that impeaching the president now is tantamount to handing over the administration to the Democratic Party. There are also calls to learn from past cases where conflicts over impeachment led to division. Governor Kim Tae-heum of Chungnam Province's remark that "the most important thing is party unity" is symbolic.

Among the opposition as well, the prevailing view is that passing the president's impeachment motion will be difficult. Democratic Party lawmaker Jung Sung-ho said in a radio interview on the morning of the same day that the possibility of impeachment is "not easy." He analyzed, "Since the People Power Party decided on an opposition party stance against impeachment at their members' meeting, I think the possibility of passage is practically almost none." Although the impeachment vote is conducted by secret ballot, with the ruling party officially announcing their absence from the plenary session, it is interpreted that it will be difficult for some People Power Party members to vote in favor. It is not easy for more than eight members to defy the party stance and attend the plenary session to vote.

There are also calls to moderate the speed of the impeachment vote led by the Democratic Party. The suggestion is to use the full legal limit of 72 hours, rather than voting 24 hours after the report, to persuade ruling party members. It is known that Cho Guk, leader of the Cho Guk Innovation Party, supports this suggestion. Reform New Party lawmaker Chun Ha-ram explained, "There are about six People Power Party members who support impeachment." Depending on the results of behind-the-scenes contacts with some ruling party members, the outcome of the impeachment vote could change. The intentions of leader Han Dong-hoon are also a variable. If the pro-Han faction supports impeachment, the likelihood of passage increases.

Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is expressing his position on President Yoon Seok-yeol's announcement of the lifting of martial law in the early morning of the 4th at the National Assembly.