US CSIS "Uncertainty Over Yoon's Survival... Possibility of North Korean Provocations"

President Yoon Suk-yeol announced in an emergency address at 4:30 a.m. on the 4th that the martial law declared last night will be lifted in response to the National Assembly's request. The photo shows President Yoon's emergency address being broadcast on the TV in the Seoul Station waiting room. Photo by Jo Yong-jun

The influential U.S. think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated on the 3rd (local time) regarding President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law, "Even though the martial law was lifted early morning on the 4th (Korean time), the domestic (political) survival prospects of President Yoon remain uncertain at this time."

CSIS, in an article titled 'South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol Declares Martial Law,' authored on the same day by Victor Cha, a leading U.S. expert on the Korean Peninsula and CSIS Korea Chair, along with researchers Andy Lim and Ji Se-yeon, conveyed that "President Yoon's declaration of martial law appears to have been intended as a strong and decisive measure to preempt political instability."

Earlier, President Yoon declared martial law in an emergency late-night address on the 3rd, and the National Assembly convened a plenary session at dawn that day to pass a resolution demanding the lifting of martial law. Subsequently, President Yoon lifted the martial law declaration during a live broadcast from the Yongsan Presidential Office at approximately 4:27 a.m.

In this context, CSIS noted, "There is a possibility of street protests erupting against a president whose approval rating is only 10%," adding, "This could signify the downfall of President Yoon."

CSIS also predicted that North Korea might exploit the current political and social turmoil in South Korea to carry out provocations. CSIS stated, "Although no North Korean statement has been issued yet, it is highly likely that North Korea will use this turmoil for propaganda purposes against the Yoon administration."

CSIS remarked, "The Biden administration is taking a cautious stance in commenting on the situation on the Korean Peninsula," but added, "More information will be disclosed, and all political conflicts must be resolved peacefully." It was reported that President Joe Biden was briefed on South Korea's martial law declaration while in Angola, Africa, on the same day.