Yoon Jin-sik, Head of the Martial Arts Association, Says "US Tariff Policy May Slow South Korea's Export Growth"

27th '61st Trade Day' Commemorative Press Conference

This Year's Exports Reach $685 Billion... Record High
Next Year Expected to Increase 1.8% YoY... Trade Surplus Forecasted at $43 Billion

"Trump is the Biggest Risk Factor for Korean Exports"
"Association's Operational Focus on the US"

Yoon Jin-sik, Chairman of the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), expressed concerns that "a challenging era is approaching" with the inauguration of the second Trump administration. In particular, although South Korea's exports are expected to continue positive growth at $697 billion next year, he forecasted that the Trump administration's tariff policies could slow the growth rate. Chairman Yoon plans to focus the association's efforts on the United States next year.

On the 27th, Chairman Yoon held a press conference at the Trade Tower in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, to mark the 61st Trade Day and made these remarks.

Yoon Jin-sik stated, "Our exports have rapidly increased compared to major countries, rising to 6th place among global exporters as of September (up from 8th last year)," adding, "The strong export performance has supported Korea's economic growth this year." He further noted, "Next year, with the continued recovery of the global economy and trade, as well as a favorable semiconductor market, we expect our exports to maintain positive growth."

According to the '2024 Export-Import Evaluation and 2025 Outlook' released by KITA's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, exports next year are projected to increase by 1.8% from this year to $697 billion, imports by 2.5% to $645 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $43 billion. With export performance expected to reach a record high of $685 billion by the end of this year, it is anticipated that Korea will achieve the largest export record for two consecutive years.

Items expected to continue positive export growth next year include semiconductors (2.2%), IT devices including wireless communication equipment (9.6%), and ships. In particular, semiconductors, which are challenging this year's highest export record, are expected to maintain growth next year based on the potential recovery of memory prices and steady demand driven by the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

However, since this year saw high growth rates, the increase is expected to slow down. Automobiles (-1.9%), which have broken export records annually for the past three years, are predicted to see a decline in exports next year due to a base effect and expanded overseas production. Exports of petroleum products (-7.9%) and petrochemicals (-0.5%) are also expected to decrease due to falling oil prices. Imports (2.5%) are projected to exceed export growth due to increased natural gas prices and volumes, leading to a slight decrease in the trade surplus ($43 billion) compared to this year.

Above all, the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to pose the greatest risk factor to Korea's export environment. In Trump's second term, aggressive tariff measures, high tariffs on China, blocking capital inflows, and other provisions related to resolving trade deficits and strengthening domestic manufacturing competitiveness are anticipated.

Chairman Yoon said, "With the inauguration of the Trump administration, we expect significant changes in government policies, responses, and impacts on industries," adding, "KITA will focus its efforts on the U.S. next year, reinforcing the organization and personnel of its Americas regional headquarters and developing response strategies centered there."

He also stated, "On the 9th of next month, we plan to hold an expert discussion session in Washington, D.C., together with the Woodrow Wilson Center, a U.S. national research institute, to address the new administration's inauguration," emphasizing, "Since Trump's key political base is the U.S. Midwest and South regions, we will focus on outreach activities and strengthening personal networks with governors and members of Congress from these states."

He continued, "We will respond according to specific policies as they emerge, but internally, we are consulting with experts on general tariffs, tariffs on China, and tariff policies toward Korea," adding, "We are closely monitoring the situation and will respond proactively."