"Timing Over Realization of Trump’s Second-Term Policies"

NH Investment & Securities Report

NH Investment & Securities analyzed on the 26th that the risks are as significant as the expectations for the second Trump administration.

Researcher Jo Yeon-ju of NH Investment & Securities explained, "The first Trump cabinet was composed mainly of businesspeople or experts with little political experience but expertise in their respective fields," adding, "They made confident statements in their areas of expertise, which led to significant internal conflicts." She continued, "The second Trump cabinet is composed mainly of loyalty-based personnel focused on policy realization," emphasizing, "The second Trump cabinet prioritizes efficiently implementing policies by allocating them to each ministry under a centralized system."

Researcher Jo analyzed, "To realize tough policies, key areas have appointed heads of new departments directly overseen by the president, who do not require Senate approval, rather than cabinet ministers who have many tasks to handle," adding, "This allows for more freedom in designing reform policies without political pressure."

He added, "Representative newly established departments include the Government Efficiency Department led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, and a presidential office department overseeing virtual currency assets," and "To implement strict immigration policies, Tom Homan was nominated as a presidential appointee who does not require Senate confirmation."

He further explained, "Considering that it took more than a year to realize past policies, it is expected that the realization of tough policies through presidential appointments in the Trump administration will also take time." Additionally, he predicted, "Policies likely to be implemented quickly include the extension of the TCJA, increased crude oil production, deportation of illegal immigrants, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine war."

Researcher Jo analyzed, "Since Trump's inauguration, extreme executive orders centered on tough personnel are likely to indicate the realization of Trump's pledges," and "It is expected that there will not be many policies that are practically realized quickly." He urged, "If policy noise is excessively reflected in the market, a calm and thorough analysis is necessary."