SMEs 74.3%, Expect Export 'Increase' Next Year Despite Trade Uncertainty

Korea Federation of SMEs Announces Results of '2025 SME Export Outlook Survey'

The number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) expecting exports to increase next year significantly exceeds those anticipating a decrease compared to this year.

The Korea Federation of SMEs announced the results of the "2025 SME Export Outlook Survey" conducted on 300 exporting SMEs on the 20th. According to the survey, 74.3% of SMEs anticipated that exports next year would increase compared to this year, while 25.7% expected a decrease.

In particular, the proportion of 'increase' responses for medical and bio products was 87.1%, higher than the average. The reasons for expecting export growth (multiple responses allowed) were led by companies citing "product competitiveness improvement such as new product launches and quality enhancement" at 45.7%, followed by increased product preference (43.0%), improved price competitiveness due to exchange rate rises (16.6%), and economic recovery in major export countries (15.2%).

The reasons for expecting export decline (multiple responses allowed) were primarily economic downturns in major export countries (61.0%), oversupply due to low-priced exports from China (33.8%), and the spread of tariff and non-tariff barriers (20.8%).

Regarding SMEs' 'export difficulties (top priority)', "spread of protectionism such as tariff increases and certification regulations" was the most cited at 29.0%, while based on the top 1st to 3rd priorities, "rising prices of raw and subsidiary materials" was the highest at 44.0%.

When asked about the "impact of the U.S. presidential election results on exports," the largest share of 43.0% responded "no impact," citing either small export volumes to the U.S. or little effect during Trump's administration. Companies expecting a "negative" impact due to the spread of protectionism such as tariff increases accounted for 30.7%, while 15% anticipated a "positive" impact as a reflection benefit from regulations on Chinese companies.

Regarding key tasks the government should pursue to strengthen SME export competitiveness in the future (multiple responses allowed), 54.7% of companies wanted an "expansion of overseas exhibition dispatches," followed by strengthened support for discovering new buyers (51.3%) and reduction of import tariffs on major raw materials (40.3%).

Choo Moon-gap, Head of the Economic Policy Division at the Korea Federation of SMEs, said, "Although SMEs generally view next year's export outlook positively, trade uncertainties are increasing as the U.S., a major export country, signals tariff barriers." He added, "The government should increase overseas exhibition dispatches to help SMEs enter more diverse markets and simultaneously pursue diplomatic efforts to resolve trade difficulties."