Future Korea Research Institute Public Opinion Survey Analysis Results Released
Response Rate Unusually High, No Analysis File Available
"Public Opinion Survey DB Should Be Examined for Possible Use in People Power Party Primary"
Analysis of a public opinion poll conducted by the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute, reportedly related to Myung Tae-gyun, has raised "suspicious circumstances." There are also calls for the establishment of a joint investigation team including the police, prosecution, and the Central Election Commission to clarify the allegations.
Myeong Tae-gyun, a key figure in the allegations of Kim Geon-hee's involvement in candidate selection and the illegal opinion poll by the Mirae Korea Research Institute, is responding to reporters' questions as he exits the Changwon District Prosecutors' Office in Seongsan-gu, Changwon-si, Gyeongnam Province on the afternoon of the 8th. Photo by Yonhap News
On the 13th, Park Eun-jung, a member of the Party for Innovation of Korea, held a press conference to reveal the analysis results of ARS public opinion polls conducted by the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute and PNR during the last presidential election period. According to the analysis conducted by public opinion poll experts, "From November 2021 to March 2022, when the presidential election took place, the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute's unpublished polls favorable to candidate Yoon Seok-yeol all had a survey period of just one day," adding, "During the same period, the average survey duration for published polls was 2 days for PNR and 2.13 days for other firms, indicating that the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute sometimes completed surveys within just a few hours."
There is also criticism that the response rate was excessively high compared to other polls in RDD (Random Digit Dialing) surveys, which randomly extract phone numbers as samples. In fact, the unpublished polls by the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute had a response rate of 7.91%, and PNR's was 7.78%. In contrast, other firms had a response rate of 5.05%. A higher response rate means that the survey can be conducted in a short period with a much smaller sample size.
Park said, "It is urgent to investigate whether Mr. Myung was a 'god of public opinion polls' who could elicit high responses from small samples, or whether, as testified by Kang Hye-kyung at the Legislation and Judiciary Committee hearing, the polls were manipulated and reported in favor of candidate Yoon Seok-yeol."
Moreover, there are concerns that the result analysis files, which should be produced during the public opinion poll analysis process, are missing. Park stated, "This raises stronger suspicions of collusion, especially since the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute might have used PNR's servers and polling analysis tools."
Regarding this, Park urged, "It is urgent to secure the unpublished raw data of the polls, which could not be confirmed from the Mirae Hanguk Research Institute's materials," and added, "To clarify whether the presidential election polls were manipulated using a database with confirmed candidate support tendencies, a thorough investigation including PNR's servers, analysis tools, and basic data must be conducted."
Additionally, Park called for an investigation into whether the database with identified support tendencies was passed to Yeouido Research, which conducted the ARS voting for the presidential election, and whether this contaminated database was used in the People Power Party's presidential primary. According to audio files previously released by the Democratic Party, Mr. Myung mentioned conducting pre-surveys of ARS polls to identify support tendencies and then performing polls designed to confuse the responses of supporters of opposing candidates. He said, "The core of the Myung Tae-gyun gate might be the public opinion polls," and added, "It is now time for President Yoon Seok-yeol and the People Power Party to respond to the illegal polling allegations surrounding Yoon, the then presidential candidate."
He also argued that the investigation unit should be expanded and reorganized. Park said, "The illegal polling allegations require a scale of investigation that reveals the full picture of the presidential election," and suggested, "The current investigation at the Changwon District Prosecutors' Office should be reorganized into a special investigation team at the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office under the control of the Prosecutor General, and operated as a joint investigation team including the police, prosecution, and the Central Election Commission."
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