The Only Institution That Can Check Trump Is the Supreme Court... Fierce 'Head-to-Head' Battle Between Republicans and Democrats

White House and Senate Followed by House Near Takeover
Current Supreme Court: 6 Conservatives vs 3 Progressives
Trump's First Term Supreme Court Win Rate Lowest at 42%

As former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party secure victories in the U.S. presidential and Senate elections and effectively approach control of the House, the perception is growing that there are almost no entities left to check their power. Although the Supreme Court remains one of the few institutions capable of providing a check, the possibility is increasing that a second Trump administration, which controls both the legislative and executive branches, will attempt to dominate the judiciary as well, prompting the Democratic Party to actively seek countermeasures.

President-elect of the United States Donald Trump Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News

U.S. media outlets such as Bloomberg News and ABC News are focusing on whether the Supreme Court can serve as a check on the second Trump administration. This is because, following Trump’s victory in the presidential election, the Republican Party has taken control of the federal Senate, and the House?which is still in the process of vote counting?is also expected to maintain its majority status.

As discussions arise that the Supreme Court is the last remaining institution to check Trump, the Republican and Democratic parties are fiercely competing over Supreme Court seats.

The U.S. Supreme Court consists of a total of nine justices. Currently, there are six conservatives and three progressives, with the court leaning conservative. Among them, three were appointed by Trump during his first term. Justices are appointed by the president but hold lifetime tenure without a mandatory retirement age, often serving until death. Accordingly, both parties have used their appointment powers to maintain the balance between conservative and progressive camps, considering the ages of the justices. Federal judges, including those on the Supreme Court, require presidential appointment and Senate approval.

Within the conservative camp, voices are emerging that two conservative justices in their 70s should retire during Trump’s term and be replaced by conservatives in their 40s or 50s to extend conservative influence for about 20 years. Simultaneously, in the progressive camp, there are calls for progressive Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who is currently 70 years old and rumored to have health issues, to voluntarily resign. The argument is that she should step down within the Biden administration and be immediately replaced by another progressive justice.

U.S. Supreme Court Reuters Yonhap News

However, it is not guaranteed that these moves by the conservative and progressive camps will actually work to their advantage in each administration. Justices appointed by the Republican Party do not necessarily side with conservative governments unconditionally. According to data analyzed by professors from the University of Washington and Pennsylvania State University, during Trump’s first term, when he directly appointed three justices, the Supreme Court’s win rate in Trump-related cases was 42%, the lowest among U.S. presidents since the 1930s.

The U.S. president with the highest Supreme Court win rate was former President Ronald Reagan, at 75%. The president with the lowest previous win rate was Barack Obama (50%). The current President Joe Biden’s Supreme Court win rate is 54%, showing a gap of more than 10 percentage points compared to Trump’s first term.

Bloomberg anticipates that the second Trump administration will contest presidential powers related to tariffs, immigration, energy, and environmental issues in the Supreme Court. It is expected that the Court will discuss the scope of presidential discretion as Trump attempts to revise laws or make policy decisions beyond the authority granted by Congress.

Bloomberg reported, "Ultimately, whether the Supreme Court sides with the Trump administration will depend on how much Trump follows through on his campaign promises and whether the Republican Party maintains its majority status in the House, thereby laying the groundwork to easily pass legislation in both chambers."