"America First Policy Stronger Than in 1st Term"
"Cabinet Likely Formed Around Trump Loyalists"
With former President Donald Trump successfully returning to power, attention is focused on the impact this will have on South Korea-U.S. relations. Experts predict that, since the U.S. Constitution prohibits a president from serving three terms and Trump's tenure is limited to four years, he is likely to swiftly implement policies emphasizing America First.
On the 7th, Kim Hyun-wook, director of the Sejong Institute, explained on YTN Radio's 'News Fighting' that Trump's term will only be four years and forecasted, "There is a high possibility that he will push the America First policy more aggressively than during his first term."
On the afternoon of the 6th, citizens at Seoul Station are watching the broadcast of former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's declaration of victory in the November 5 U.S. presidential election. Photo by Yonhap News
He added, "Unlike his first term, he is likely to appoint people who listen well to him and share his views. Since the Senate and House are almost controlled by the Republican Party, if this trend continues, Trump's policies over the next four years are expected to be implemented more quickly and decisively than during his first term."
Choi Jong-geon, professor of political science and diplomacy at Yonsei University, also predicted that loyalists will be placed at the center of the cabinet to "implement policies swiftly in order to achieve visible results."
On the same day, on MBC Radio's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focus,' he said, "During Trump's first term, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson tried to conduct conventional diplomacy and often restrained Trump. Therefore, as his first term progressed, Trump surrounded himself with people who only listened to him, and this behavior is likely to continue."
Trump's return to power is expected to have a significant impact on South Korea's diplomacy, security, and economy. Trump has pledged to introduce a universal tariff of at least 10% and has argued that allied countries should increase their defense cost-sharing contributions.
Regarding this, Director Kim said, "Trump is expected to demand renegotiation of defense cost-sharing. The defense cost-sharing agreement is not subject to approval by the U.S. Congress, so the president can unilaterally make decisions on it." He continued, "Trump previously tried to increase it fivefold, but the agreement was not reached and the matter passed to the Biden administration. This time, he is likely to push even harder than before."
Professor Choi stated, "There will be demands for defense cost-sharing as well as possible charges for the strategic assets regularly deployed and the intensified joint military exercises. During the election campaign, Trump even referred to South Korea as a 'cash machine.' From South Korea's perspective, the pressure is overtly strong, so the government needs to be vigilant."
Regarding tariff expansion, Director Kim said, "South Korea is not the only country subject to universal tariffs; almost all countries, including Japan, are in the same situation. Having experienced the first term, we can develop response scenarios for a Trump administration that emphasizes economic issues, so overcoming this is entirely possible."
Additionally, Director Kim said, "During his first term, Trump disregarded the alliance system while pursuing America First. However, the current global security landscape has deteriorated significantly. With the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and various challengers such as China and North Korea, the Trump administration will need to respond through the global alliance system, making it difficult to carry out a withdrawal of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea."
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