"Even if Talks Resume with the US, Time Is Needed"
Pre-Trump Administration Deterioration Remains a Variable
Contrary to initial expectations within and outside the Russian government, there are views that it will be difficult to improve relations with the United States in the short term even after the election of former President Donald Trump. Although former President Trump flaunted his personal friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and pledged to restore relations and achieve a ceasefire, it is analyzed that it will be difficult to immediately repeal the bipartisan Ukraine aid package in the U.S. Furthermore, with about two months remaining until the start of a potential second Trump administration, there is a possibility that the Biden administration and the Democratic Party will push for a tougher policy toward Russia, making it unlikely that the severed U.S.-Russia relations will be restored easily.
"There is no American official in Moscow to engage in talks"
The Moscow Times, a local Russian media outlet, quoted senior Russian government officials on the 6th (local time), immediately after the U.S. presidential election winner was confirmed, saying, "Even though Trump was elected, the current Russia-U.S. relationship is completely severed, and there is no American official in Moscow to restore relations or resume negotiations," adding, "Until the U.S. formally sends a negotiation team after Trump's inauguration, Russian forces will continue their advance within Ukraine."
In fact, the communication channels between the U.S. and Russia have been completely cut off since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. The staff at the U.S. Embassy and diplomatic missions in Russia have been reduced to one-tenth of their pre-war numbers, and the U.S. government has not lifted its travel ban on Russia. Even if former President Trump is elected, it will be very difficult to immediately restore official channels to pursue negotiations with Russia.
However, there is some expectation from the Russian side that after Trump's inauguration, there will be many diplomatic advantages and improvements in relations with the U.S. Since former President Trump pledged to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours even before taking office if elected, it is anticipated that he will try to achieve visible results in a short period right after inauguration.
The Moscow Times analyzed, "Former President Trump will try to restore the legitimacy and confidence of his administration by ending two wars, in Ukraine and the Middle East, after taking office," adding, "He will want to be at the center of the entire process and is expected to strive to leave his mark on history by winning the Nobel Peace Prize or through other means."
The Russian government is concerned about the possibility of a sudden shift in Biden administration's policy toward Russia before the start of Trump's second term. The reason President Putin waited two days after former President Trump's election to send congratulations, rather than immediately, is interpreted as a cautious move considering the Biden administration.
According to RIA Novosti, on the 8th, at the Valdai Discussion Club meeting held in Sochi, southern Russia, President Putin said, "I want to take this opportunity to congratulate Trump on his election as U.S. president," adding, "His desire to restore relations with Russia and to end the Ukraine crisis is worth noting."
There was no official congratulatory message immediately after the U.S. election results were announced on the 6th. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov drew attention by stating at a press briefing, "There are no plans for President Putin to congratulate Trump. We will carefully analyze and observe everything before drawing conclusions based on specific words and actions."
RIA Novosti quoted a Kremlin official saying, "The Russian government is currently concerned that the outgoing Biden administration may take bolder actions against Russia during the transition period," adding, "Since the U.S. Democratic Party lost not only the presidential election but also the Senate elections, they have nothing more to lose and may complicate relations with Russia further. They might increase support for Ukraine or approve the use of weapons capable of striking deep into Russian territory."
The Biden administration is also rushing to provide support to Ukraine before the power transition. The U.S. political media outlet Politico reported, "The Biden administration is pushing to expedite the pre-approved Ukraine aid package before Trump's inauguration on January 20 next year," adding, "They plan to execute a budget exceeding $6 billion (approximately 8.4 trillion KRW) already secured." President Biden also ordered the provision of weapons worth $5.5 billion through the 'Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA),' which allows support without congressional approval, during his summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in September.
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