[US Election 2024]
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the United States, moved one step closer to re-entering the White House by winning Georgia following North Carolina in the battleground states in the presidential election held on the 5th (local time). With Trump securing two out of the seven battleground states, Vice President Kamala Harris, his competitor, faces a situation where there is no realistic winning scenario unless she can hold onto the ‘Blue Wall’ Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania. However, Trump is currently leading Harris even in these Blue Wall Rust Belt states where vote counting is still underway.
According to AP News and others, as of 3:10 PM Korean time on the 6th, with 95% of the votes counted in Georgia, former President Trump secured victory with 50.9%. Consequently, the 16 electoral votes from Georgia went to Trump. Earlier, Trump had won North Carolina, the first of the seven key battleground states that will decide this year’s election outcome. North Carolina also carries 16 electoral votes. AP News reported, "With victories in North Carolina followed by Georgia, Trump’s return to the White House has become imminent."
In the early stages of vote counting, the competition between the two candidates in the seven battleground states was tight, but as counting progressed, the balance gradually tilted toward former President Trump. Notably, even the Blue Wall Rust Belt, which was previously a Democratic stronghold, appears to be turning red (Republican). For Vice President Harris to win this election, she must hold onto the three Midwestern Blue Wall Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Among the battleground states, Pennsylvania, the "largest battleground" with the most electoral votes at 19, initially showed Harris with about a 60% lead early in the count, but this was overturned around noon. With 93% of the votes counted, Trump leads with 51% over Harris’s 48%. AP News explained that the reversal was due to the early counting reflecting a significant portion of mail-in ballots favored by Democratic voters in this election.
Michigan, also part of the Blue Wall along with Pennsylvania, saw Trump leading with 52% at 66% vote count, overturning the early lead held by Harris. Another Blue Wall state, Wisconsin, where voting closed at 11 AM Korean time, also shows Trump ahead with 51% at 87% counted. For Vice President Harris, this means losing the early momentum in the Blue Wall. Local media emphasized that if North Carolina and Georgia are lost to Trump, the only realistic winning scenario for Harris is to hold onto these three Blue Wall states.
Additionally, Trump’s lead is confirmed in other battleground states. In southern Arizona, with 54% of votes counted, Trump leads slightly with 50% over Harris’s 49.1%. Nevada, which has the fewest electoral votes at 6, also shows Trump ahead with 50.9% at 75% counted. The Republican Party has also regained the majority in the federal Senate after four years.
Having gained the upper hand in the crucial battleground states that will determine the presidential election, former President Trump is currently heading to the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida, where his supporters have gathered. Local media suggest that Trump may declare victory in a speech scheduled shortly. Vice President Harris was expected to watch the vote count at her alma mater Howard University in Washington, DC, but reportedly did not appear there by midnight on election day.
The New York Times (NYT) reported that based on battleground state vote counts, remaining vote history, and population distribution, Trump has a 95% chance of winning with 299 electoral votes over Harris’s 239. This probability has risen from the previously stated 89% after securing Georgia.
So far, Vice President Harris and former President Trump have secured 214 and 247 electoral votes respectively. To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure more than half of the 538 total electoral votes allocated to each state, meaning at least 270 votes.
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