[Turning Point Yoon]② SWOT Analysis: Threat Factors Increased

Leverage Strengths in Momentum, Compensate Weaknesses through Communication
Lee Jae-myung, Democratic Party Leader's Judicial Risk as an Opportunity Factor
Kim Geon-hee's Issue Requires Proactive Resolution
Need to Reestablish Relationship with Han Dong-hoon, Ruling Party Leader

Four Major Reforms 'Tenacity'…Policy Execution Strength (S)

One of President Yoon Seok-yeol's key strengths as he reaches the midpoint of his term on the 10th is his characteristic 'tenacity' stemming from his background as a tough prosecutor. Once he is confident in a direction, he does not waver and pushes forward head-on?a trait that has consistently manifested in his policy implementation as president. When President Yoon boldly announced in February the expansion of medical school quotas by 2,000 as part of medical reform, many viewed it with skepticism. Past administrations had attempted quota increases but faced strong resistance from the medical community, failing to increase medical school quotas by even one student for over 30 years.

Now, nine months later, while conflicts between the government and the medical community?such as collective resignation of residents and mass leave of medical students?remain pressing issues to resolve, paradoxically, these long-standing challenges have surfaced, allowing for potential breakthroughs. A Health and Welfare Ministry official said, "Although there were critical moments, such as concerns over emergency medical crises during Chuseok, President Yoon's strong reform will has been the driving force," adding, "We will seek cooperation from the medical community to create a turning point that revitalizes regional and essential medical services."

The four major reforms repeatedly emphasized by President Yoon?medical, pension, labor, and education reforms?are all difficult tasks. Pension reform, which involves sharply conflicting interests between generations, is a politically sensitive topic that many want to avoid. In September, the government proposed a single plan to raise the insurance premium rate from 9% to 13%, with older generations facing faster increases. Although opinions vary on the details, the government’s setting of a benchmark and the conclusion of the last National Assembly session have revived the pension reform debate, which many thought was effectively over, marking a significant achievement.

Another strength is his bulldozer-style policy execution that pushes through once convinced. The revival of the nuclear power industry, which faced a crisis under the Moon Jae-in administration, is an example. The Yoon administration is actively pursuing the national agenda of "abolishing the nuclear phase-out policy and strengthening the nuclear industry ecosystem," anticipating increased power demand linked to AI utilization and advanced industry development, and securing stable energy sources.

Short Political Career…Revolving Door Personnel 'Weakness' (W)

However, President Yoon’s uncompromising drive, a key strength, can also be a 'weakness' like two sides of the same coin. When the medical community fiercely opposed the unprecedented large-scale medical school quota increase and demanded a complete rollback, President Yoon repeatedly expressed his determination for "no compromise, direct breakthrough." In September, at the National Unity Committee performance report, he directly criticized the medical community and opposition parties, saying, "Cartels sometimes join hands to block reform to protect their common interests." Early this year, even supporters of the quota increase expressed fatigue over the prolonged medical-government conflict. Professor Il-sang Lee of Seoul National University said, "Reform involves resistance, but excessive conflict can cause social division and other problems," emphasizing, "Efforts to find compromise, such as accelerating bipartisan medical-government consultations, are urgently needed."

The lack of cooperative governance due to his short political career is another area needing improvement. Since 2022, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung proposed eight summit meetings, but President Yoon did not respond until after the party’s April general election defeat. Around the same time, he told aides he would become a "political president," but his refusal to recognize the opposition leader as a national partner and treating him like a suspect left a negative impression on citizens hoping for cooperation.

The narrow talent pool is also cited as an area requiring reform. Having served as Prosecutor General in a strict hierarchical prosecution organization, President Yoon employs a typical "older brother leadership" style. Valuing loyalty and trusting those once proven reliable, prosecutors have occupied key positions not only in the presidential office but also in unrelated ministries, drawing criticism. The revolving door personnel issue is also a limitation. In August, the presidential office replaced three security officials simultaneously: Kim Yong-hyun, head of the Presidential Security Service, became Minister of National Defense; Shin Won-sik, Defense Minister, became National Security Office chief; and Jang Ho-jin, security office chief, moved to foreign and security special advisor, sparking rumors. Kim Dae-gi, the first presidential chief of staff, was appointed ambassador to China just 10 months after stepping down. Controversial appointments such as Lee Jin-sook, chair of the Korea Communications Commission known for hardline views, and Kim Hyung-seok, director of the Independence Hall embroiled in New Right controversies, have sparked exhausting debates.

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "Being elected president in one election without prior party affiliation can be a strength as political interests are limited," adding, "Active communication is needed to compensate for the short political career." He also noted, "Although the talent pool is narrow, the lack of political experience allows for a more balanced selection of talents," suggesting, "Appointing highly specialized personnel in the right places to maximize strengths and offset weaknesses is the way to successfully manage the remaining term."

President Yoon Suk-yeol is speaking at the Cabinet meeting held on the 29th of last month at the Yongsan Presidential Office building in Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Improvement in Korea-US-Japan Relations…Diplomatic and Security Achievements (O)

As President Yoon enters the midterm of his administration, the domestic and international environment he faces is challenging. Especially when external threats such as North Korea’s heightened security threats and the U.S. presidential election results intensify, the president’s role becomes more prominent, potentially turning crises into opportunities. Choi Byung-chun, director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute, said, "In polls related to President Yoon, respondents often cite diplomacy as a key reason for support," adding, "Positive evaluations relate to the Korea-US-Japan Camp David Declaration and Korea-Japan diplomacy." However, Choi noted, "Those who view diplomacy positively tend to be conservatives, and diplomatic achievements alone have limits in boosting approval ratings, so it’s uncertain whether this can be leveraged as an opportunity." He also said, "North Korea’s security threats and tough responses can consolidate the support base but have limits," warning, "If the confrontation with North Korea is framed due to domestic political issues like the Kim Geon-hee matter, it could accelerate defections among moderate voters."

There is also analysis that the experience of former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment could serve as a safety net in worst-case scenarios like impeachment. Although conservative figures joined the impeachment at the time, they later faced persecution as targets of anti-corruption drives, which could work as an opportunity for President Yoon. This experience may help restrain division within the conservative camp.

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung’s judicial risks could also provide an opportunity for President Yoon to turn the tide. Choi said, "Depending on the trial outcomes on the 15th and 25th, various scenarios could unfold," adding, "If the results are unfavorable to Lee, it could create a shift in momentum for President Yoon." However, Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science said, "Even if Yoon’s approval rating drops, it doesn’t necessarily benefit Lee," and "Conversely, problems for Lee don’t automatically translate into gains for Yoon."

Kim Geon-hee’s Risks…Opposition’s Offensive (T)

The biggest threat to President Yoon is the risks related to First Lady Kim Geon-hee. Allegations of stock price manipulation involvement, luxury handbag controversies, and suspicions of her influence on state affairs through communication with political broker Myung Tae-gyun have surfaced like a flood. Professor Shin advised seeking a bold solution regarding this issue. He said, "President Yoon should advocate for a permanent special prosecutor," explaining, "A permanent special prosecutor can be appointed by the president upon the Justice Minister’s assessment of investigation necessity and can start immediately," adding, "This is the way to resolve the suspicions about Mrs. Kim." He further stated, "Accepting even a permanent special prosecutor would allow President Yoon to say he accepted a 'spouse special prosecutor,' which is necessary to devise a breakthrough."

Concerns about political responsiveness are also high. Criticism has arisen over the president’s absence from the National Assembly policy speech, having Prime Minister Han Duck-soo read it instead, controversies related to General Hong Beom-do, and the president personally announcing plans for the East Sea gas field and giant whale drilling, all seen as political missteps. There are also worries about party-government relations, including with People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon. Thanks to the trauma from former President Park’s impeachment, the ruling camp has managed to maintain cohesion to some extent. The relationship with Han is both a threat and an opportunity for President Yoon. Choi said, "Han is walking a dangerous tightrope as the opposition within the ruling party," adding, "Han pressures the presidential office but also acts as a firewall against crises originating from the presidential office."

The opposition’s offensive is another major threat. The opposition has been escalating demands daily, including calls for impeachment and constitutional amendments to shorten President Yoon’s term. However, skepticism remains about whether impeachment or similar measures can actually succeed. Choi said, "Expectations for President Yoon are low, so unlike former President Park, disappointment is not as severe; combined with the conservative collapse experience from Park’s impeachment, dissatisfaction with the Moon Jae-in administration born from the Candlelight Revolution, and conservative voters’ anxiety about Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, the situation shows a different pattern from the past," he concluded.