[US Election 2024]
A foreign media article has drawn attention by focusing on the reasons why former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, could each win the U.S. presidential election on November 5, held just one day away.
On November 4 (local time), the British BBC broadcast reported a Washington-based article titled "10 Reasons Why Both Harris and Trump Can Expect Victory." The outlet noted that major polls confirmed a close race within the margin of error until the final stages of the campaign, highlighting that both candidates have persuasive reasons to believe they hold an advantage.
5 Reasons Why Trump Could Win
The first reason former President Trump could win is that he is not currently in power. Trump has recently asked at rallies, "Are things better than four years ago?" Voters who consider the economy the most important issue cannot ignore the difficulties caused by soaring inflation after the pandemic. BBC noted, "Globally, the sharp rise in living costs after the pandemic has led to resentment against incumbent governments, resulting in regime changes in several cases," adding, "American voters also desire change." The UK also experienced a regime change to the Labour Party in an early general election last July.
According to a Gallup poll released last month, only one in four Americans said they were satisfied with the current direction of the country. Seventy-two percent of respondents were dissatisfied. Additionally, nearly 62% of respondents expected the economic situation to worsen. BBC added that Vice President Harris has tried to emphasize "change" and "renewal," but has struggled to distance herself from President Joe Biden as vice president.
The second reason is that former President Trump has not been significantly affected by various negative news, including judicial risks. Since the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, which he refused to accept the election results, Trump has faced unprecedented criminal convictions and multiple indictments. Nevertheless, his approval rating has remained stable above 40% throughout the year.
Democrats and anti-Trump conservatives have judged Trump as "unfit for office" for inciting violence and refusing to accept election results in a democratic society. However, many Republicans agree with Trump’s claim that he is a victim of a political witch hunt. In such a clearly divided situation, BBC reported that Trump only needs to persuade a small number of undecided voters.
Trump’s warnings about "illegal immigration," which he uses to attack Vice President Harris, also resonate with voters. Besides the economy, immigration and abortion rights have been the main issues influencing the election outcome, with Trump’s camp focusing on immigration and Harris’s camp on abortion rights. Recent polls show voters prefer Trump’s stance on immigration. The rise in Trump’s support among Latino voters, traditionally considered Democratic strongholds, is a situation that Harris cannot ignore.
The fourth reason is that there are more people without degrees than with degrees. BBC stated, "Trump has changed American politics by appealing to voters who feel forgotten and marginalized," specifically noting that traditionally Democratic working-class voters have shifted to the Republican Party and tariffs to protect American industry have become common. If Trump can increase voter turnout in rural and suburban battleground states, it could offset losses to moderate Republicans.
The final reason is that Trump has positioned himself as a strong leader. Trump has claimed during rallies that no major wars occurred during his term. BBC pointed out that many Americans are angry about the billions of dollars the U.S. has provided to Ukraine and Israel and believe the country has weakened under the Biden administration. Amid rising geopolitical risks, Trump has built an image as a stronger leader than his competitors, including Vice President Harris, for most voters, the outlet added.
5 Reasons Why Harris Could Win
There are also reasons to be optimistic about Vice President Harris’s victory. First, BBC emphasized, "She is not Trump." Despite his strengths, Trump still receives highly polarized evaluations. More than seven million Americans supported Joe Biden in the 2020 election because they rejected Trump.
Harris has sought to highlight the "fear of Trump’s return" among voters by labeling Trump as a "fascist" and a "threat to democracy." A July Ipsos poll showed that four out of five Americans believe the country is heading toward a state of uncontrollability. This presents an opportunity for Harris to attract not only Democrats but also moderate Republicans and independent voters who dislike Trump.
The second reason is "She is not Biden." After President Biden’s first TV debate in June, there was a sense of crisis within the Democratic Party that they might lose this year’s election. United in the goal of defeating Trump, the Democrats have since rallied around Harris. BBC noted that while Republicans tried to link Harris to unpopular Biden administration policies, Harris has rendered some of their attacks meaningless.
The most distinct factor is age. Voters have expressed concerns about Biden’s advanced age affecting his ability to perform his duties. However, with the changing dynamics, the age risk has become a boomerang for Trump. Harris is 60 years old, 18 years younger than Trump.
Additionally, Harris’s advocacy for women’s rights, including abortion rights, is another reason. This election is the first since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling that constitutionally guaranteed abortion rights. Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris. Moreover, her candidacy itself holds historic significance as she could become the first female president of the United States. BBC assessed that this could significantly strengthen Harris’s advantage among female voters.
BBC also noted that groups with higher voter turnout typically include those with college education and older adults, who tend to support Harris and the Democrats. Conversely, Trump is more popular among younger men and those without college degrees, groups with relatively lower turnout rates.
Finally, in the "money war" of the U.S. presidential election, where massive amounts of funds are invested, Harris has raised more support funds so far, which is also cited as a reason she could win. BBC quoted major foreign media emphasizing that the 2024 election will be the most expensive in history, and since becoming the Democratic candidate last July, Harris has raised more political funds than Trump has since January this year. This financial power and the resulting political advertising campaign are expected to play a certain role in the tight race.
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