What Is the Wildcard to Flip the US Presidential Election Polls? ... 'Shy Voters'

[US Election 2024]
Reasons for Failure to Predict Trump's Victory in 2016 Presidential Election
Refusal to Participate in Polls and False Responses Distorted Results

In the lead-up to the November 5 U.S. presidential election, various polls predicted a close race, but some analyses suggest that reality could be different. It is pointed out that the results may be distorted due to the 'shy voter' phenomenon, where respondents refuse to answer surveys or hide their true intentions.

On the 4th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) identified 'shy Trump voters' as one of the reasons polling agencies failed to predict former President Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election, warning that the same could happen in this election. At that time, Trump won the presidency by securing more electoral votes despite receiving fewer nationwide votes than his opponent, Hillary Clinton.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

According to a recent PBS News poll of 1,297 voters nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris recorded 51% support, leading former President Trump by 4 percentage points (Trump at 47%) with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points. However, WSJ suggested that Harris's nationwide lead might underestimate Trump's support due to shy conservatives who refuse to respond or falsely report their preferred candidate.

Indeed, a recent battleground state poll by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College found that white Democrats are more likely to participate in polls than white Republicans. NYT explained, "While statistical adjustments can correct sample imbalances, this may signal that Trump's actual support is not fully captured."

Similarly, shy Harris supporters are also a variable in this election. Mark Putnam, a Democratic ad producer, assessed, "In an environment where there is pressure to vote for Trump, it is not impossible for female voters to hide their true intention to vote for Harris from pollsters." Recently, the Democratic Party released an ad featuring the voice of Hollywood actress Julia Roberts, showing a wife secretly voting for Vice President Harris without her husband knowing, emphasizing that "what happens at the polling station is nobody's business outside."

Additionally, voters who register on election day are also cited as a cause of distorted poll results. Most polling agencies conduct surveys based on voter lists managed by each state, but many regions, including key battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, allow same-day registration and voting, making it difficult to gauge voter sentiment. For example, in the 2020 election, about 68,000 people registered to vote on election day in Wisconsin, far exceeding the approximately 20,700 vote margin between President Joe Biden and former President Trump in that area.