The Fate of the US Presidential Election Day... First Female President or Again Trump? [US Choice 2024]

Main Voting Starts at 12 AM on the 5th Eastern Time
Usual Election Outcome Emerges by 11 PM on Election Day
Close Race May Delay Result Announcement by Several Days
Swing State Polls Fluctuate Until the Final Moments

Is it going to be the first female president of the United States, or again (again) Trump?

On September 10th (local time), local residents in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, are watching the presidential candidate TV debate broadcasted on a large screen. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The U.S. presidential election, which will have a greater impact on global affairs than any previous election, will be held on the 5th (local time). The world’s attention is focused on whether Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris will become the first female president in U.S. history, or whether Republican candidate former President Donald Trump will make a comeback to the White House, avenging his defeat four years ago. This election, which is unfolding in an unprecedentedly tight race, has seen poll results flip repeatedly, making it impossible to predict the outcome until the very end.

The main voting to elect the 47th president of the United States will begin at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the 5th (2:00 p.m. Korean time on the 5th) in Dixville Notch, a small mountain village in northern New Hampshire. Voting hours vary by state but generally start between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. and close between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.

The election results usually begin to take shape around 11 p.m. on election day, and it is customary for the loser to concede with a speech around midnight. However, due to the expected razor-thin margin and high early voting turnout in this election, it is anticipated that the final results may take several days to be confirmed. If Vice President Harris wins, there are concerns that former President Trump, who has repeatedly raised allegations of election fraud, may take legal action and refuse to concede.

In the U.S. presidential election, the president is decided not by the total popular vote but by the number of electoral votes secured based on each state’s election results. Out of a total of 538 electors, the candidate who secures the majority 'magic number' of 270 electors enters the White House. Since most states have clearly defined party preferences, the outcome is usually decided in seven battleground states. Among these, Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electors at 19, is the key battleground.

Currently, the two candidates are engaged in an extremely close competition until the last moment. In nationwide support ratings, Vice President Harris leads. According to a poll conducted by PBS News, public radio NPR, and polling firm Marist from October 31 to November 2, surveying 1,297 voters nationwide, Vice President Harris recorded 51% support, leading former President Trump’s 47% by 4 percentage points, outside the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points).

The key is the battleground states. Poll results have changed multiple times by polling agency, creating an unpredictable race until the end. According to a poll released on the day by political media The Hill and Emerson College, conducted from October 30 to November 2, former President Trump led Vice President Harris in four states: Pennsylvania (49% to 48%), North Carolina (49% to 48%), Georgia (50% to 49%), and Arizona (50% to 48%) (margin of error ±3 to 3.4 percentage points). Vice President Harris led Trump in Michigan (50% to 48%). In Nevada and Wisconsin, both candidates tied with 48% and 49% support respectively. This poll showing Trump with 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss in battleground states is the exact opposite of the previous day’s poll results. The previous day’s poll by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College showed Vice President Harris leading with 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss. Harris led in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and tied with Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump led only in Arizona. However, since neither candidate secured a clear lead beyond the margin of error in the battleground state polls released on two consecutive days, the race is effectively considered a tie in support ratings.

On the final day of campaigning, the 4th, both candidates are focusing all their efforts on Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground holding the key to the White House. Pennsylvania alternated its support between Republican candidate Trump in 2016 and Democratic candidate President Joe Biden in 2020, with the candidate winning this state becoming the occupant of the White House. Vice President Harris will undertake a grueling schedule visiting five locations in Pennsylvania, starting in Scranton in the afternoon, then Reading, Allentown, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. Former President Trump will also devote half of his four rallies that day to Pennsylvania, starting in North Carolina. He will conclude his campaign in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he held his final rallies in the last two presidential elections.

The NYT commented, "Trump and Harris are locked in a painfully close race in battleground states from Pennsylvania to Michigan and Arizona," adding, "The competition is so tight that both candidates are moving more urgently and busily to mobilize every last voter."