"Harris Leads Nationwide by 4%P... Trump Ahead in 4 Battleground States [US Election 2024]"

PBS News "Harris 51% · Trump 47%"
The Hill & Emerson College "Trump Wins 4, Draws 2, Loses 1 in Swing States"

The U.S. presidential election, unfolding in an ultra-close race, continues to be a chaotic contest with results unpredictable even a day before the vote. While Democratic candidate Vice President Harris holds a nationwide lead, a poll shows former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, leading in seven key battleground states. This reverses a poll from just one day earlier where Vice President Harris had a narrow lead in those battleground states, making it difficult to foresee who will become the next occupant of the White House.

According to PBS News on the 4th (local time), a poll conducted from the 31st of last month to the 2nd of this month surveyed 1,297 voters nationwide and released the results on the same day. Vice President Harris recorded 51% support, leading former President Trump’s 47% by 4 percentage points (margin of error ±3.5 percentage points).

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (left) and Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands ahead of a TV debate held on September 10 (local time) at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Among voter groups, an increase in support for Vice President Harris was notable among men. Male voters’ support for Harris rose to 47%, up 6 percentage points from 41% in last month’s poll. Conversely, support for former President Trump among male voters declined from 57% to 51% during the same period.

Among female voters, Vice President Harris garnered 55% support, while former President Trump received 44%. In the previous month’s poll, these figures were 58% and 40%, respectively.

By race, former President Trump led among white voters with 54% support, ahead of Vice President Harris’s 45% by 9 percentage points. However, considering that Trump had a 12 percentage point lead among white voters in the 2020 presidential election, this margin has narrowed.

Vice President Harris received 83% support from Black voters and 61% from Latino voters. However, these figures are 8 and 2 percentage points lower, respectively, than the support President Joe Biden received from these groups in the 2020 election.

In the battleground states that will decide the U.S. presidential election, a poll shows former President Trump holding a slim lead.

According to a poll conducted by political media outlet The Hill and Emerson College from the 30th of last month to the 2nd of this month and released on the same day, former President Trump led Vice President Harris in Pennsylvania (49% to 48%), North Carolina (49% to 48%), Georgia (50% to 49%), and Arizona (50% to 48%)?four states (margin of error ±3 to 3.4 percentage points). Vice President Harris led former President Trump in Michigan (50% to 48%). In Nevada and Wisconsin, the two candidates were tied with 48% and 49% support, respectively.

This poll showing former President Trump with 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss in the seven battleground states contrasts sharply with a New York Times (NYT) and Siena College poll released the previous day, which showed Vice President Harris leading with 4 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss. However, since neither candidate has secured a clear lead beyond the margin of error in the battleground state polls released on consecutive days, analysts consider the race effectively tied.