Professor Kim Dae-jong of Sejong University, "Korea Must Prepare for US Presidential Election and International Financial Crisis"

2025 Economic Outlook Special Lecture
"90% Chance of Trump Election
Prepare for Interest Rate Cut"

Professor Kim Dae-jong of the Department of Business Administration at Sejong University presented forecasts on the U.S. presidential election and South Korea's trade economy through the '2025 Economic Outlook Special Lecture.'

On the 4th, Sejong University announced that Professor Kim conducted the economic outlook special lecture for members of the Namseo Rotary Club at the Seoul Club on the 1st.

Professor Kim Dae-jong of the Department of Business Administration at Sejong University gave a special lecture on economic outlook to members of the Namseo Rotary Club at the Seoul Club on the 1st. Provided by Sejong University.

In his lecture, Professor Kim stated, "The probability of former President Trump being elected has risen to 90%," and added, "South Korea, with a trade dependency rate of 75%, ranking second in the world after China, faces a significant crisis."

He further expressed the view that "South Korea should increase local factories in the U.S. and minimize Chinese components."

He also forecasted an economic crisis for South Korea. Professor Kim said, "South Korea ranks 9th in the world in GDP, 5th in manufacturing, and 35th in international finance, so it must prepare for an international financial crisis," adding, "For companies, online strategies, government procurement, subscription economy, and the adoption of artificial intelligence are most important."

Regarding macroeconomics, he predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower the benchmark interest rate by 1% annually to 4.5% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025, and 2.5% in 2026. He emphasized that South Korea should also cut its benchmark interest rate alongside the U.S. to stimulate the economy.

Professor Kim argued, "If the government regulates loans citing household debt, it will cause a balloon effect," stressing that government policies require consistency and predictability. He insisted that the loan market and real estate policies should be left to the market economy.

Earlier, through his published book '2025 Economic Grand Outlook,' Professor Kim had also predicted similar forecasts. In his book, he argued that thorough preparation is necessary for the U.S. interest rate cuts, the inauguration of the U.S. president, and two wars.

He anticipated through the book that Seoul apartments would rise in price over the next ten years. In terms of global market capitalization share, he projected the U.S. to hold 60% and South Korea 1.5%. He recommended diversifying investment with 90% in the U.S. and 10% in South Korea, suggesting blue-chip stocks like Apple and Nvidia.