[US Election 2024]
ABC·Ipsos Poll, 50% Men for Trump·53% Women for Harris
Harris Launches Final Offensive with Michelle and Oprah Winfrey
Trump Targets Young Men... "Low Voting Intention"
As the U.S. presidential election to be held on the 5th (local time) remains fiercely competitive until the very end, the candidates are making a last-minute push to win votes. Former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party is targeting young male voters, while Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party is focusing on moderate and independent female voters. Analysts suggest that the election outcome could hinge on how many young male voters, who typically have a low likelihood of voting, actually turn out.
According to a poll conducted by ABC and Ipsos from October 29 to November 1 surveying 3,140 voters nationwide (with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points), Vice President Harris holds 49% support, while former President Trump has 46%. Among men, Trump's support is 50%, 5 percentage points higher than Harris, whereas among women, Harris's support is 53%, 11 percentage points higher than Trump.
Vice President Harris is mobilizing a large number of prominent female figures to rally support in the final stretch. On this day, notable women such as Michelle Obama and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer held events supporting Harris in battleground states. "Queen of Talk Shows" Oprah Winfrey, pop stars Lady Gaga and Katy Perry are scheduled to campaign for Harris on the 4th.
From the early stages of the presidential race, Vice President Harris has targeted female voters by emphasizing abortion rights and bodily autonomy. Among Harris's supporters, there is analysis that a "shy Harris"?similar to the hidden Trump supporters who changed the tide in the 2016 election?could be a variable. It is suggested that white female voters, traditionally Republican supporters, might change their minds due to abortion rights. Hollywood star Julia Roberts even released an advertisement urging, "Let's vote for Harris without telling our husbands."
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed that former President Trump is targeting young men dissatisfied with politics. Trump campaigned at the world's largest sneaker festival, Sneaker Con, and at UFC arenas. At a rally held on October 27 at Madison Square Garden in New York, popular male figures such as former professional wrestler Hulk Hogan and UFC president Dana White appeared. Hogan's shirt-ripping performance was criticized even among conservatives for being excessively masculine, potentially alienating female supporters.
WSJ interviewed young people nationwide over recent months, who expressed feeling alienated by Democratic policies and showed interest in Trump's economic promises. Some also praised Trump's strong illegal immigration policies.
However, the low voter turnout among young men poses an obstacle for Trump’s path back to the White House. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the voter turnout for ages 18 to 24 in the 2020 election was just over half. WSJ pointed out that within this age group, male turnout was lower than female turnout. Luke Mayhack (25), a high school gym teacher in a Milwaukee suburb, told WSJ, "Many men around my age are moving in the same direction. Men like Trump more," but added, "In a group chat with 8 to 9 high school classmates, 2 to 3 said they would not vote in this election."
A recent poll conducted by Harvard University's Institute of Politics targeting voters aged 18 to 29 shows that among registered voters, Vice President Harris leads with 53% support compared to Trump's 33%. Among 18 to 29-year-old men who are certain to vote, Harris's support is 55%, surpassing Trump's 38%. However, among men with a low likelihood of voting, Trump's support is 37%, 11 percentage points higher than Harris's 26%.
John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard's Institute of Politics, stated, "Looking at traditional voter groups, Vice President Harris is likely to win young male voters by double digits," but he also projected that if young male voters with low voting intentions participate, Trump could receive 5 to 7 percentage points more support among young men than he did in the 2020 election.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
