North Provocation: Will the Sequence Proceed from 'ICBM → Nuclear Test'? [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Military, "TEL Deployment Completed for ICBM Provocation"
Possibility of Normal Angle Launch Instead of High-Angle Launch

North Korea has completed the deployment of a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) for provocations involving intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the U.S. mainland. The TEL has been deployed in a specific area, indicating that a launch to verify the technology of ICBM atmospheric reentry could take place.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 31st, a senior government official stated, "Considering the personnel exchanges between North Korea and Russia and various strategic cooperations following the failure of the military reconnaissance satellite launch in May, it is understood that North Korea is preparing to launch an improved reconnaissance satellite."

It is expected that if North Korea conducts an ICBM launch and a 7th nuclear test, the ICBM launch will occur first in terms of timing. North Korea has not announced any additional launches this year. It is speculated that they have not precisely identified the technical defects from the satellite launch failure or have refrained from announcing a relaunch out of consideration for Russia. North Korea acknowledged the failure of the launch of the military reconnaissance satellite No. 2, which exploded after being launched from the Dongchang-ri West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Pyonganbuk-do in May, through a report by the Korean Central News Agency. North Korea stated, "We will also review other possible causes of the problem."

No Mention of Relaunch After Satellite Failure

However, no timeline for a relaunch was mentioned. This differs from the past when plans for a retry were announced immediately after a failed launch. When North Korea first failed to launch the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 on May 31 last year, it stated, "After various tests, we will carry out a second launch as soon as possible." Furthermore, after the second launch failed on August 24, it specified a concrete timeline by saying, "We will conduct the third reconnaissance satellite launch in October," demonstrating a clear intention to relaunch.

If North Korea launches a direct ICBM instead of a satellite, it is highly likely that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, will observe the launch in the Pyongyang area. So far, North Korea has launched most ICBMs, such as the Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18, under Kim’s observation in the Pyongyang area.

In particular, if the launch occurs this time, it is likely to be at a normal angle rather than a high angle. A high-angle launch cannot verify the performance of the reentry vehicle carrying a nuclear warhead. The military assesses that this time, a normal angle (30 to 45 degrees) launch could be conducted to verify reentry technology.

Possibility of ICBM Launch to Verify Atmospheric Reentry

On the 30th, the Defense Intelligence Agency reportedly briefed the National Assembly Intelligence Committee in a closed session, according to the committee’s secretaries from both ruling and opposition parties. The Defense Intelligence Agency reported in the hearing that "ICBM TELs have been deployed in a specific area" and "an ICBM launch to verify atmospheric reentry technology could take place, possibly around the U.S. presidential election in November." Regarding nuclear tests, it analyzed, "There is a possibility of a nuclear test using Tunnel No. 3," and "Kim Jong-un will make a decision considering the strategic environment, including the U.S. presidential election."

After the U.S. presidential election, the possibility of a 7th nuclear test is also high. The Defense Intelligence Agency told the Intelligence Committee, "North Korea will try to highlight nuclear issues before the U.S. election," and "Kim Jong-un visited a uranium enrichment facility, and if there is a possibility of missile launches such as ICBMs, there is also a possibility of a 7th nuclear test."

If North Korea proceeds with a nuclear test, it could be conducted in Tunnel No. 3. The 3rd and 4th tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site have never been used. Tunnel No. 1 was closed after the first nuclear test in 2006, and Tunnel No. 2 was used for the 2nd to 6th nuclear tests from 2009 to 2017. However, North Korea announced in May 2018 that Tunnels No. 3 and 4 were closed by "explosion" methods.

High Likelihood of Nuclear Test in Tunnel No. 3... Military Surveillance Intensified

With renewed "unusual activities" detected at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, South Korean and U.S. authorities are on high alert. The South Korean military has intensified reconnaissance missions using aircraft such as Geumgang and Baekdu (RC-800) and Saemae (RF-16). Geumgang and Saemae have been collecting video intelligence from the area connecting Nampo to Hamhung in North Korea, while Baekdu has been gathering signals intelligence, including electronic intelligence (Elint) and communications intelligence (Comint). Geumgang and Baekdu (RC-800) are assigned to the Air Force’s 15th Fighter Wing, and the Saemae reconnaissance aircraft is assigned to the 19th Fighter Wing.

The U.S. military is expected to fly reconnaissance aircraft such as the RC-12X "Guardrail" and RC-135V "Rivet Joint" over the Korean Peninsula daily. If a nuclear test becomes imminent, the U.S. may also deploy strategic assets such as the B-52H long-range bomber, which can carry nuclear missiles. The B-52H can carry 12 AGM-129 cruise missiles and 20 AGM-86A cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads, as well as anti-ship missiles and conventional bombs, with a total weapon load of 32 tons. Previously, the B-52H conducted a show-of-force flight over Japanese airspace during North Korea’s ICBM launches.