[US Election 2024]
Democratic Voter Turnout Slightly Ahead of Republican
Limited Data, Caution Against Hasty Conclusions Needed
With the U.S. presidential election in November just a week away, the number of early voters has surpassed 50 million.
According to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, as of 6:40 p.m. on the 29th (local time, Eastern Time), approximately 51 million people had voted early. This is about 50% of the early voters (around 100 million) in the 2020 presidential election, which recorded the highest turnout in U.S. elections since 1900. About 24 million voters completed early voting by mail, while approximately 27 million voted early in person.
In terms of party affiliation among voters who participated, the early voting rate of Democrats was higher than that of Republicans. Based on data from 25 states providing party affiliation information, the early voting rate for Democrats was 39.5%, slightly ahead of the Republican rate of 36.1%. However, considering that in the last presidential election the early voting rates were 44.8% for Democrats and 30.5% for Republicans, the gap has significantly narrowed.
The rise in early voting rates among Republican supporters is largely attributed to statements made by former President Donald Trump. Previously, Trump questioned the reliability of early voting after losing to President Joe Biden four years ago and rejected the results. However, in a recent interview with Fox News, he suddenly changed his stance, saying, "I will also participate in early voting," urging his supporters to join in.
Among early voters, participation by the elderly was particularly notable. Based on data from nine states providing voter age information, the early voting rate for voters aged 65 and older was 41%, nearly six times higher than the 6.9% early voting rate of voters aged 18 to 25.
The U.S. political media outlet The Hill pointed out that "the victory for Biden four years ago was delivered by Generation Z and Millennials," and noted that their low early voting rates could disappoint Vice President Kamala Harris, who hopes the winning formula of the 2020 election will work again. It also emphasized that "this year's election is characterized by a growing gender gap among young voters, with women leaning Democratic and men shifting to the right."
However, experts caution that these early voting statistics are insufficient as a basis for analyzing the election outcome. Scott Tranter, Chief Data Scientist at Decision Desk HQ, said, "There are many uncontrolled variables, and we must consider the unique circumstances of the last election, which had unusually high early voting rates due to the pandemic." He added, "It is fine to make some observations, but it is premature to draw too many inferences or conclusions about the election outcome."
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