Excitement Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election on November 5
In the fourth week of October, Bitcoin's price hovered around $67,000. With the U.S. presidential election just 11 days away on November 5 (U.S. time), the price has been fluctuating just below the $70,000 mark. The two major party candidates are locked in a tight race for the U.S. presidential victory, which is expected to be a turning point that could reshape the virtual asset industry landscape. Bitcoin advocates maintain their 'surpassing $100,000' theory, citing favorable macroeconomic conditions such as the U.S. election tailwinds and an interest rate cut trend.
According to the global virtual asset market tracking site CoinMarketCap, as of 2:45 PM on the 26th (Korean time), Bitcoin's price stood at $67,112.14, down 1.04% from the previous day. Compared to a week ago, it has dropped 1.83%, but it is up 5.46% compared to a month ago. The year-over-year increase is 93.91%.
Bitcoin started at the $68,000 range on the 20th and surged past $69,000 on the 21st. However, it then sharply reversed and continued to decline, plunging to $65,000 on the 24th. It later rebounded temporarily to recover the $68,000 range. Currently, it maintains the $67,000 range.
CoinTelegraph, a specialized cryptocurrency media outlet, analyzed that "funds flowed in even as Bitcoin prices fell," suggesting that institutional investors still hold expectations for a bullish market despite short-term price declines.
The driving force behind Bitcoin's rally is the anticipation of the U.S. presidential election. Former President Trump, the Republican candidate, has positioned himself as a pro-crypto advocate. If elected, he is expected to actively ease regulations on the industry, including mining and exchanges. The Trump campaign has even presented a detailed long-term plan to stockpile Bitcoin as a strategic asset alongside gold and crude oil.
Bitcoin proponents continue to express optimism that the price will surpass $100,000. Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, also cited on the social networking service X the reasons for his bullish stance: accelerated inflows into Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the upcoming U.S. election, China's economic stimulus measures, a global trend of interest rate cuts, supply shocks due to Bitcoin halving, accumulation by 'whales' (large holders), and the U.S. government's unlimited deficit.
Jeff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, also predicted, "If the Republicans control Congress in the November U.S. election, Bitcoin's price could rise unprecedentedly to $125,000 by the end of the year." He forecasted that the price could reach $73,000 by election day and added that further gains might be possible after the election. He expressed confidence that the price would surge 4% immediately after the election results are announced and then rise about 10% more over the following days.
Republican presidential candidate former President Trump is closely trailing Democratic vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris. In a joint poll released on the 25th (local time) by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris and Trump were tied at 48% each. Earlier this month, a poll by The New York Times and Siena College showed Harris leading 49% to 46%. The New York Times assessed that the environment is becoming less favorable for Harris.
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