[Broken Wind Vane]③ "Public Opinion Manipulation Must Be Prevented by Laws and Systems... Political Parties and Media Must Also Change"

Measures to Prevent Public Opinion Manipulation by Women’s Commission and Others
Inae-Young, Chair of Women’s Commission, "Legal and Institutional Revisions Needed"
Legislators Also Propose Laws Like the Myeong Tae-Gyun Prevention Act

Editor's NoteThe suspicions surrounding 'political broker' Myeong Taegyun are shaking the political world. Claiming to be a public opinion survey expert, Myeong approached power by utilizing public opinion surveys, which are considered a barometer of public sentiment. In the process, he is suspected of manipulating these surveys. Taking this opportunity, we examine the reality and countermeasures of public opinion manipulation in three parts: ① Myeong Taegyun's approach to power through public opinion surveys ② How the manipulation was carried out ③ Public opinion manipulation: Revising laws and systems

As the circumstances of Myeong Taegyun's public opinion manipulation have come to light, calls are growing to revise election-related public opinion surveys whose reliability is now in question. To eliminate regulatory blind spots in election-related surveys such as unpublished polls, it is pointed out that institutional improvements along with reforms in political parties and the media are also required.

On the 24th, Lee Naeyeong, professor of political science at Korea University and chairperson of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission (CESDC), said in a phone interview with Asia Economy regarding measures to improve public opinion survey manipulation, "We plan to institutionalize measures to reduce the existing exemptions from prior reporting and to increase transparency in unpublished surveys in some form," but added, "The biggest problem is that there are limits unless existing regulations or laws are changed. Laws and systems must be revised."

The CESDC, established to ensure the objectivity and reliability of election-related public opinion surveys, has been preparing improvement measures in response to a series of controversies over survey manipulation. The CESDC is considering measures such as applying the same regulations on weighting and other factors to unpublished surveys as those applied to published surveys to prevent distortion, and reducing the scope of exemptions from survey reporting to strengthen monitoring. In particular, there is discussion about including internet media, which had been exempt from prior reporting under Article 108 of the Public Official Election Act, in the reporting requirements.

Chairperson Lee said, "When we announced the policy to reduce reporting exemptions for surveys conducted under the name of media companies due to poor management, there was strong opposition from the media," and introduced, "There have been significant concerns that media companies, political circles, and survey firms could collude to manipulate election polls. Myeong's case is a representative example."

He added, "Moreover, unpublished surveys were not subject to deliberation, but these unpublished surveys are being politically exploited, leading to criticism from the media and the public about the lack of regulation," and noted, "If unpublished surveys conducted by candidates or parties are regulated, there will be strong opposition." If unpublished surveys are included under CESDC monitoring, even the political circles are bound to resist. Chairperson Lee said, "When problems arise, they complain to the National Election Commission or CESDC, but when it comes to institutional reform, the media opposes being included in the survey registration system, creating a vicious cycle."

He also mentioned the limitations of the CESDC organization. "The CESDC is ultimately a committee that meets once a month with about 20 staff members," he pointed out, "whereas election-related public opinion surveys are conducted excessively." Regarding solutions, Chairperson Lee explained, "With this issue becoming public, a mood for improvement has emerged, and we are developing measures and presenting them to the National Assembly."

Legislation to Prevent Myeong Taegyun Emerges in the National Assembly

Separate countermeasures are also emerging in the political arena. Following the outbreak of suspicions about Myeong's manipulation of public opinion surveys, Park Jeonghun, a member of the People Power Party, proposed an amendment to the Public Official Election Act containing measures to eradicate political brokers using public opinion surveys. The related law, named the 'Myeong Taegyun Prevention Act,' focuses on strengthening the function of the registration cancellation system for election-related survey organizations introduced in 2017. Park's proposal aims to permanently expel survey organizations or groups that violate the Public Official Election Act or the Political Funds Act by prohibiting their re-registration. It also includes provisions to strengthen penalties by eliminating fines and mandates the introduction of anonymized phone numbers. Political commentator Lee Jonghun also said, "Ultimately, the only way is to strengthen punishment," adding, "People must be made aware that if caught once, they will be properly punished."

A bill to raise the response rate to 15% to ensure the objectivity and reliability of public opinion surveys has also been proposed in the National Assembly. Hong Junpyo, mayor of Daegu, who has repeatedly called for a ban on publishing surveys with response rates below 15%, recently stated, "The wrong culture where response rates of 2-3% are treated as if they represent the entire public opinion must change," and argued, "ARS surveys where only extreme supporters or opponents respond should be abolished, and publishing surveys with response rates below 15% should be prohibited." Voices from academia also call for raising response rates. Lee Hoon, professor of media studies at Kyung Hee University, said, "No matter if a survey has 1,000 or 10,000 respondents, if the response rate is low, the research method itself is problematic." He further stated, "In public opinion surveys, there should be clearer explanations about how panels were selected from the population."

However, apart from reform intentions, there are concerns that finding solutions for unpublished surveys is not easy. Professor Gye Bong-o of the Department of Sociology at Kookmin University said, "It may not be possible to consider unpublished surveys themselves as a problem," adding, "You can't stop students from conducting surveys or similar activities." There is skepticism about whether election-related surveys can be placed under regulatory scope. Moreover, it is doubtful whether political parties, which have been exempt from regulations in surveys, will accept such measures.

Aside from institutional improvements, calls for self-purification efforts within the political sphere are also emerging. Political commentator Lee Jonghun said, "Should we see this as only a problem of survey firms? Ultimately, survey firms have proliferated because politicians demand such surveys. Politicians request manipulated surveys, and firms comply, creating a self-sustaining cycle." Professor Lee Hoon also said, "Isn't it because there is demand from the political side? They decide on the answer first and then look for data that fits, which is the problem."