88,000 Seoul Apartment Sales Listings in October
Approximately 7,400 Units ↑ from Previous Month... Largest Increase This Year
1 in 5 New Listings Located in Gangnam
Experts Say "Prices Don't Drop Even with More Listings"
Seoul apartment listings are accumulating mainly in the Gangnam 3 districts. This month, listings increased at the largest rate this year, and among the increased listings, one out of five units is located in the 'Gangnam 3 districts' (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa districts). This is a result of the sharpest decline in transaction volume in this area.
Experts explained that the excessive rise in apartment prices centered on prime areas in the first half of this year, along with the reduction in mortgage loan limits, influenced this trend. However, they believe that even if listings pile up in the Gangnam 3 districts, housing prices will not fall.
Seoul Apartment Listings Increase by 7,400 Units in One Month... 20% Concentrated in Gangnam
According to the real estate big data platform 'Asil' on the 24th, the number of apartment listings in Seoul was 87,981 units as of the 23rd. This is about 7,400 units more than a month ago on the 23rd of last month (80,589 units), showing a rapid accumulation. In Seoul, where transactions were active between January and June this year, listings began to gradually accumulate starting in July (79,050 units).
Among the 7,392 units added in the past month, the largest share was the Gangnam 3 districts (19.8%·1,421 units). Following were 'Nodogang' (Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk districts) with 13.0% (959 units), 'Mayongseong' (Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong districts) with 9.8% (726 units), and 'Geumgwan-gu' (Geumcheon, Gwanak, Guro districts) with 9.0% (664 units).
The reason for the increase in listings was the decrease in Seoul apartment transaction volume. According to the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza, the number of apartment transactions in Seoul last month (as of the 23rd) was 2,807, which is over 3,000 fewer than the previous month (6,300). Comparing the decrease in transaction volume by region from August to September, Gangnam 3 districts dropped by 726 transactions (1,145 → 419), Nodogang by 440 (824 → 384), Mayongseong by 419 (705 → 286), and Geumgwan-gu by 229 (465 → 236).
"Despite Listing Accumulation, Expectation of Interest Rate Cuts and Rising Jeonse Prices Make Housing Price Declines Difficult"
Experts diagnosed that listings began to accumulate due to the government's loan regulation effects. Ham Young-jin, head of the Real Estate Research Lab at Woori Bank, and Kim Je-gyeong, CEO of Toomi Real Estate Consulting, said, "The financial authorities tightened the money supply and raised the buying threshold by implementing the second phase of the stress Debt Service Ratio (DSR) last month, leading to a lull in transactions." Ham added, "After July, transaction volume peaked, and buyers' fatigue over price increases accumulated, which also contributed to the increase in listings."
However, they predicted that even if listings increase mainly in the Gangnam 3 districts, housing prices are unlikely to fall. Kim said, "Although transaction volume has decreased and listings have increased in Gangnam, complexes that are setting new record prices continue to appear." Ham said, "With expectations that the base interest rate cuts will continue next year, demand to move up to prime areas may increase. In this situation, it is difficult for homeowners to lower their asking prices, so housing prices are unlikely to fall." He also added, "With the continued rise in jeonse prices, even if listings increase, there is a factor supporting apartment prices."
Meanwhile, as listings increased in the Gangnam 3 districts, some areas experienced price drops in transactions. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's real transaction price disclosure system, a 63㎡ unit in Hanyang 1st Complex in Apgujeong-dong, Gangnam-gu, was traded for 3.35 billion KRW on the 11th. This is 50 million KRW lower than the previous transaction price of the same size on August 27th (3.4 billion KRW). The actual transaction price of an 84㎡ unit in Helio City, Garak-dong, Songpa-gu, was 2.33 billion KRW as of the 12th, which is over 100 million KRW lower than the highest price of the same size last month (2.435 billion KRW).
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
