When One Elderly Driver Returns Their License, Traffic Accidents Decrease by 0.01 Cases

Korea Transport Institute Publishes Related Research in Academic Journal
"Long-term Incentives Needed to See Substantial Effects"

As traffic accidents involving elderly drivers have been increasing recently, becoming a social issue, an analysis showing that if one driver aged 65 or older surrenders their license, traffic accidents decrease by about 0.01 cases has drawn attention.

On the 12th, the Korea Transport Institute published a paper titled “A Study on the Effect of Voluntary License Surrender Policy for Elderly Drivers on Reducing Traffic Accidents” in the academic journal Transportation Research. The study was jointly conducted by Professor Choi Jae-hoon of Kunsan National University (Department of Law, Administration, and Police Studies, lead author) and Yeom Yun-ho of Pusan National University (Department of Public Policy, corresponding author).

The paper analyzed traffic accidents involving elderly drivers and the cumulative number of license surrenders in 215 regions nationwide from 2017 to last year.

The analysis showed that traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers aged 65 or older per 1,000 license holders were 10.4 cases in 2017, 10.5 cases in 2018, 10.3 cases in 2019, 8.5 cases in 2020, 7.8 cases in 2021, and 7.8 cases in 2022.

The cumulative number of license surrenders per 1,000 elderly license holders was only 1.1 cases in 2017. However, it surged to 4.5 cases in 2018, 20.9 cases in 2019, 36.5 cases in 2020, 50.9 cases in 2021, and 67.3 cases in 2022.

Controlling for other factors and conducting a panel regression analysis between license surrender and traffic accidents, it was found that when one elderly driver in a region surrenders their license, traffic accidents decrease by 0.0118 cases over one year. The social cost reduction per one license surrender (converted into monetary value including human and material damage costs and social institution costs) was 420,000 KRW annually.

Currently, local governments nationwide provide incentives such as cash or transportation cards when elderly drivers voluntarily surrender their licenses.

Seoul City provides a prepaid transportation card loaded with 100,000 KRW to elderly drivers aged 70 or older who surrender their licenses. Incheon City also offers a local currency card worth 100,000 KRW to voluntary license surrenders aged 70 or older.

The paper analyzed that considering most local governments provide incentives worth about 100,000 KRW, the license surrender system is effective relative to the input.

However, to more practically encourage elderly drivers to stop driving, it is necessary to provide long-term incentives. The paper added, “In rural and fishing villages, where public transportation is inconvenient, it is not easy to give up driving with just a 100,000 KRW incentive.”

It further suggested, “In rural and fishing villages where it is difficult to establish a public transportation system comparable to urban areas, it is necessary to actively utilize systems such as the ‘100-won taxi’ (a taxi service where passengers pay only 100 KRW for a certain distance) that link public transportation and taxis at a low cost.”