An unexpected competition between 'right-wing' candidates has emerged for the leadership of the UK's main opposition party, the Conservative Party. This is due to the surprising elimination of a centrist candidate who had been leading until the final two-candidate selection vote. The Conservative Party leader is scheduled to be elected next month through a nationwide vote by party members.
According to The Guardian and others, on the afternoon of the 9th (local time), in the fourth round of voting by Members of Parliament to decide the two Conservative leadership candidates, Kemi Badenoch, former Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, secured first place with 42 votes out of 120. Following her was Robert Jenrick, former Minister of State for Immigration at the Home Office, with 41 votes. James Cleverly, the only 'centrist' candidate who had led in the third round, received only 37 votes and was eliminated.
As a result, the next leadership contest will be a showdown between right-wing candidates emphasizing anti-immigration and the reunification of the divided right. The Guardian described, "Whatever happens, the next Conservative leader will be a right-wing populist," adding, "Both Badenoch and Jenrick call for right-wing unity. The main difference lies in their emphasis: Jenrick focuses on immigration policy, while Badenoch concentrates more on culture wars and institutional reform."
The final two candidates, former Secretary Badenoch and former Minister Jenrick, are both considered right-wing within the party. Badenoch, of Nigerian descent, advocates for the Conservative Party's unity and institutional reform, stating the need to "fight against impure identity politics." Jenrick, who resigned earlier criticizing Rishi Sunak's government's Rwanda refugee transfer policy as insufficient, has pledged to "significantly reduce annual immigration inflows." He also argues that the UK should immediately withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights to achieve this.
On the other hand, James Cleverly, who failed to make the final two, had been regarded as a figure capable of uniting both hardliners and moderates within the party by advocating for the "normalization of the Conservative Party." The Guardian reported, "Cleverly must have been strongly confident he would make the final two when he went to bed the night before," calling his elimination "sudden and unexpected." It added, "Now the Conservative Party faces a narrow choice between two firmly populist candidates within the party." The New York Times (NYT) also noted, "The finalists are surprising figures," and described the atmosphere as one of great astonishment when the result narrowing the competition to two right-wing candidates was announced. Cleverly expressed on his social media account that he was "very disappointed."
Locally, there is analysis that the vote counting among MPs with voting rights led to the elimination of the previously strong candidate Cleverly. PA Media suggested, "Some may have assumed their preferred candidate was already safe and thus supported their second-choice candidate." Former Conservative MP Jackie Doyle-Price pointed out, "It's time to abolish elimination-style voting and change the rules," adding, "Conservative MPs should vote for the person they want to be leader. Only then can they get the leader they desire."
The final two candidates, former Secretary Badenoch and former Minister Jenrick, are scheduled to debate on the afternoon of the 17th. Subsequently, the party leader will be confirmed on the 2nd of next month through a vote by all nationwide party members. The new leader faces the challenge of healing internal party divisions that have grown amid scandals including the so-called Partygate and the worst early general election defeat in July, as well as restoring public trust. The Conservative Party, which suffered a defeat in the last general election, has lost votes not only to the ruling Labour Party but also to the far-right anti-immigration Reform UK and the centrist Liberal Democrats. Currently, the Conservative Party holds only 121 seats in the House of Commons, far fewer than the ruling Labour Party's 403 seats. The NYT reported, "Whoever wins will face the long and painful task of rebuilding the party," adding, "The only consolation is that the new Labour government has started its rocky debut amid various scandals."
Meanwhile, major parties including the ruling Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats welcomed the voting results. Labour Chair Ellie Reeves stated, "Conservative Party members must now choose between the two architects of the Conservative Party's failure," asserting, "Both Badenoch and Jenrick have been central figures in the incompetent Conservative leadership and decline over the past 14 years." There is speculation that as the Conservative Party focuses on reunifying the divided right, it may further alienate centrist voters. Former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron also claimed that this election result will bring a great opportunity to the Liberal Democrats.
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