Gwangyang County Governor By-election: Intense Battle Between Two Leading Candidates in a Neck-and-Neck Race

Lee Jae-myung, Support Campaign... Plea to Rally Voter Sentiment
Democratic, Progressive, and Innovation Candidates Compete, Outcome Difficult to Predict

With about a week left until the October 16 by-election for Yeonggwang County Governor, an ultra-close battle is unfolding among the candidates from the Democratic, Progressive, and Innovation parties, making it impossible to predict the outcome. Amid this, on the 9th, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, visited Yeonggwang for the third time and embarked on a 2-day, 1-night schedule to defend his stronghold.

On that day, at the Yeonggwang Bus Terminal intersection in Yeonggwang County, Jeollanam-do, Lee urged voters to consolidate support for the Democratic Party’s candidate Jang Se-il during a campaign rally. The rally was packed with about 1,000 people, including Democratic Party officials, over 20 incumbent lawmakers, party members, and local residents. For more than 50 minutes, he spoke from the campaign vehicle, advocating for "judging the Yoon Seok-yeol administration," "pilot city for energy basic income," and "measures against rice price collapse."

At around 5:30 PM on the 9th, with 7 days left until the Jeonnam Yeonggwang County Governor by-election, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung visited Yeonggwang again for a 2-day, 1-night schedule and held a support rally at Yeonggwang Terminal.
[Photo by Kim Geon-wan yacht@]

Lee said, "The Innovation Party and the Progressive Party are all our allied parties," and added, "This is a critical phase where we must judge the government and ruling party’s failures, so the front lines must not be disrupted," targeting the Innovation and Progressive parties. He also expressed, "The ruling and opposition parties are confronting each other head-on, but is it right to stab from the side saying, 'I don’t really like you'?"

Lee also addressed Democratic Party supporters, saying, "In Honam, they only focus on internal competition within the Democratic Party and neglect the residents; I know they think the candidate selection is strange," and mentioned, "Before the next local elections, we will get pledges from Democratic Party local government candidates." He further added regarding Jang’s basic income pledge of 1 million won per person in local currency, "If basic income is promoted at the county level, we can make the province support it as well."

Will a Major Upset Occur? Democratic 'Stronghold Defense' vs Progressive 'Everyday Politics' Showdown

Recently, the three opposition party candidates in the Yeonggwang County Governor by-election have been neck and neck within the margin of error. It seems premature to make any predictions before the vote count on the 16th.

The Democratic, Progressive, and Innovation party candidates maintained a "three-way race" early in the election, but about a month ago, the race tightened to an "ultra-close" contest within the margin of error. However, recent polls released by the election commission show that with Innovation Party candidate Jang Hyun faltering, the race has shifted to a "two-way contest" between Democratic candidate Jang Se-il and Progressive candidate Lee Seok-ha, intensifying the competition. Additionally, in two polls conducted around the same time, the Democratic and Progressive candidates each led with about 30%, while the Innovation candidate remained in third place with around 27%.

Candidates for the October 16 Yeonggwang County Governor by-election. From the left, Jang Se-il (Democratic Party), Jang Hyun (Innovation Party), Lee Seok-ha (Progressive Party), Oh Ki-won (Independent).
[Photo by Central Election Commission]

According to a poll conducted over two days from the 8th to 9th by 'YT Newspaper' through Innertech Systems Co., Ltd., surveying 804 valid respondents among Yeonggwang residents, support was 35.6% for Democratic candidate Jang Se-il, 32.6% for Progressive candidate Lee Seok-ha, and 27.1% for Innovation candidate Jang Hyun. Independent candidate Oh Ki-won received 1.6%. (95% confidence level, margin of error ±3.5%P)

Also, a poll conducted over two days from the 7th to 8th by 'Namdo Ilbo' through Realmeter Co., Ltd., surveying 502 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Yeonggwang County, showed Progressive candidate Lee Seok-ha leading with 35.0% within the margin of error. Democratic candidate Jang Se-il had 33.4%, and Innovation candidate Jang Hyun had 27.4%. Independent candidate Oh Ki-won had 0.8%. (95% confidence level, margin of error ±4.4%P). Detailed results of these polls can be found on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

Meanwhile, with the election just a week away, signs of a major upset are emerging. The race has effectively narrowed down to a two-way contest between the Democratic and Progressive candidates. Ahead of early voting on the 11th and 12th, local voters’ preferences lean more on 'like or dislike' of candidates rather than party allegiance, making it difficult to determine a clear advantage. Therefore, each candidate’s election strategy is expected to be a decisive factor.

A local political insider said, "In this election, which has grown into a national-level contest, each candidate’s party camp is checking early voting and main election day turnout and their correlation with vote counting," adding, "If turnout is the same or lower than usual, the Democratic Party, with its traditional organizational base, will have an advantage; if higher, the Innovation and Progressive parties will benefit."

This election, the first to gauge local sentiment since the general election, will hold early voting over two days starting the 11th, ahead of the main vote on the 16th.