New York Stock Market Mixed in Early Trading... Awaiting Powell's Message and PCE Inflation Data

Major Economic Indicators Awaited
Growth Rate and Unemployment Claims on 26th, PCE Inflation Data on 27th
Powell Also Scheduled to Speak on 26th

The three major indices of the U.S. New York stock market showed mixed movements near the flat line in early trading on the 24th (local time). The market is in a cautious stance, awaiting economic data releases this week, including Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech, the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and the finalized second-quarter GDP growth rate.

As of 10:46 a.m. in the New York stock market, the blue-chip-focused Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.36% from the previous trading day, standing at 42,056.09. The large-cap-focused S&P 500 index was up 0.01% at 5,733.26, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index was trading 0.32% higher at 18,133.09.

Since the Fed's 'big cut' (a 0.5 percentage point interest rate reduction) on the 18th, investor interest in the current economic situation has intensified. With mixed forecasts of a soft landing and recession, investors appear to be gauging the economy through economic indicators.

The August new home sales released on this day were 716,000 units, down 4.7% from the previous month (751,000 units). On the 26th, the finalized real GDP growth rate for the U.S. second quarter will be disclosed. It is expected to show an annualized growth rate of 3%, doubling the first quarter's 1.4%. Weekly jobless claims will also be released on the same day. The August PCE price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed, will be released on the 27th. Last month's PCE price is expected to have risen 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year.

Wall Street expects the market to continue a volatile trend, reacting sensitively to individual indicators.

Lauren Goodwin, Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, analyzed, "Investors will buy into this rally until jobless claims rise, earnings slow, and growth becomes a concern. Until then, the market will show a truly uneasy state between growth and recession."

On the 26th, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's public speech is also scheduled. Following the big cut on the 18th and a series of remarks from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members this week, the market is expected to seek hints about the future scale and pace of rate cuts from Powell's message.

Investors are anticipating the possibility of an additional big cut at the next FOMC meeting. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, the federal funds futures market currently reflects a 62.2% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.5 percentage points at the November FOMC meeting and a 37.8% chance of a 0.25 percentage point cut.

By stock, Progress Software is up 12.4% following earnings that exceeded expectations. KB Home is down 3.8% due to weak earnings. General Motors and Ford are down 5.58% and 4.37%, respectively, after Morgan Stanley downgraded their investment ratings. Nvidia, which surged nearly 4% the previous day on news of large-scale production of the latest AI chips, is up 2.94% today.

Government bond yields are slightly higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, a global bond yield benchmark, rose 2 basis points to 3.75% compared to the previous trading day, while the 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to monetary policy, is trading steady at 3.52%.

International oil prices are declining. The market is reassessing whether China's large-scale economic stimulus announcement will actually lead to economic recovery. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is down $1.14 (1.59%) to $70.42 per barrel, and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, is down $1.10 (1.46%) to $74.07 per barrel.