'90% Accuracy' US Presidential Election Predictor, Who Did Harris vs Trump Favor?

Professor Allen Richtman Presents Prediction Based on 13 Key Analyses
"Harris Will Surpass Trump"

Allen Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has accurately predicted most U.S. presidential election outcomes over the past 40 years, has forecasted that Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, in the upcoming November election. On the 5th (local time), Professor Lichtman predicted Harris's victory during a video interview with The New York Times (NYT).

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump, who are running in the upcoming U.S. presidential election this November
[Photo by AP and Yonhap News]

Since 1984, he has been called the "election oracle" for correctly predicting every U.S. presidential election outcome except for one. Specifically, Professor Lichtman bases his predictions on his "Keys to the White House" model, which consists of 13 factors: the incumbent party's standing, primary election, candidate incumbency, third-party candidates, short-term economic performance, long-term economic performance, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, foreign/military failures, foreign/military successes, incumbent's charisma, and challenger's charisma.

He derives the winner by answering "true or false" questions related to these keys. The more true answers there are, the more favorable it is for Vice President Harris; if false answers dominate, it favors former President Trump. At this point, Professor Lichtman stated, "Eight keys are true, which favors Harris. Conversely, three keys are false."

Professor Lichtman explained that two keys related to foreign policy could work in favor of former President Trump just before the election. He said, "Foreign policy is tricky, so the keys can be flipped," adding, "The Joe Biden administration is deeply invested in the seemingly endless Gaza conflict." He expressed confidence that his "keys" will produce accurate results in this election as well. He said, "The keys will work precisely. They are the unwavering North Star of political forecasting," and added, "The outcome depends on you. Go out and vote."

Earlier, in early July, Professor Lichtman had predicted, "The only chance for the Democrats to win is if Joe Biden (the current president) remains in the primary." At that time, he called the idea of the Democrats nominating Vice President Harris as a replacement for President Biden "foolish and nonsense."

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris's support, which had been on the rise recently, has stalled. Amid this, a poll showed that Harris's approval rating is trailing behind former President Trump. According to a poll conducted by NYT and Siena College from the 3rd to the 6th among 1,695 registered voters, Vice President Harris's support stood at 47%, trailing former President Trump’s 48% by 1 percentage point.

This result is similar to a poll conducted in late July, right after President Biden announced he would not run for re-election. At that time, Vice President Harris had 46% support, while former President Trump had 48%. Newsweek noted that Harris's previously rising support curve has plateaued over the past week, suggesting that the honeymoon period appears to be over. They forecasted that support would remain flat or decline until the TV debate scheduled for the 10th (local time), which could mark a turning point in the trend.