US Job Data Shock... Harris vs. Trump Showdown 'Key' [Bitcoin Now]

Sharp Drop Followed by Slight Rebound... Sideways Movement Around $54,000
Stocks and Cryptocurrencies Fall Together Amid US Economic Slowdown Concerns
Interest Rate Cut Expectations... Focus on US Presidential Candidates' Moves

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the United States

The Bitcoin market in the first week of September experienced a bearish trend, plummeting to the $52,000 range before barely recovering to the $54,000 level. This was due to concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which caused risk asset markets such as stocks to decline in tandem. The market is focusing on the pivotal U.S. presidential debate between candidates Harris and Trump scheduled for September 10 at 9 PM (Korean time September 11 at 10 AM). The virtual asset industry is betting on Trump, who has positioned himself as a 'pro-virtual asset president.'

According to the global virtual asset market tracking site CoinMarketCap, as of 4:29 PM on the 8th (Korean time), the price of Bitcoin stood at $54,421.53, up 0.27% from the previous day. Compared to a week ago, it has dropped 6.41%, and compared to a month ago, it has fallen 10.94%. However, it has recorded a 107.19% increase compared to a year ago.

The price, which started in the low $58,000 range on the 2nd, briefly approached the $60,000 mark during trading on the 3rd but then declined. It continued to trend downward, hitting a low of $52,530 in the early hours of the 7th. Since then, it has slightly rebounded but remains sideways in the $54,000 range.

The sudden drop in the early hours of the 7th is believed to be the result of multiple factors. Forbes cited Jacob Joseph, Chief Research Analyst at CC Data, explaining, "Along with macroeconomic factors, sluggish flows in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and seasonal factors combined to push Bitcoin prices down."

On the 5th (local time), the U.S. Department of Labor announced that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, falling short of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 161,000. The unemployment rate for August was 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, matching market expectations. Immediately after the U.S. jobs data release, the three major U.S. stock indices showed declines of 1-2% on the 6th (local time), reflecting heightened risk aversion.

This analysis suggests that concerns about an economic recession triggered by U.S. economic indicators have also negatively impacted the virtual asset market. Analyst Jacob Joseph noted, "Recent job data revisions indicate that the labor market is more fragile than previously expected," adding, "This is increasing fears of a recession."

However, some hold a positive view that these job figures could increase the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut in September. Brett Shippling, Investment Advisor at Gova Kawasaki Asset Management, said, "The recent sell-off was triggered by the recent jobs report that caused investors to doubt the economic situation," but he also predicted that this data increases the chances that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a much more dovish stance.

There are also opinions emphasizing the importance of the U.S. presidential debate scheduled for September 10. Seongwook Hong, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "While the probability of digital assets being directly mentioned is low, the stances of the two candidates on digital assets are becoming clear," emphasizing, "The policy direction could completely change depending on which candidate wins." He added, "Trump has promised deregulation, but Harris is likely to prioritize regulation and seems to have little difference in stance compared to President Biden."

The virtual asset industry has been paying close attention to the November U.S. presidential election. Trump, the Republican candidate, attended the 'Bitcoin 2024 Conference' as a keynote speaker and announced a strategic plan to accumulate Bitcoin. He also expressed intentions to accept Bitcoin as a campaign donation. The reason Trump continuously mentions digital assets is believed to be linked to political donations. It is known that 48% of U.S. corporate political donations in the first half of this year came from blockchain companies. Major donors include Coinbase and Ripple, with most of the funds reportedly flowing to the Republican side.

According to virtual asset data provider Alternative, the Fear & Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment, stood at 29 points (fear) as of that day. This is the same range as last week's 26 points (fear). Alternative's Fear & Greed Index ranges from 0, indicating extreme fear and pessimism about investing, to 100, indicating optimism.