[Global Focus] Who is the 'Post Kishida'? Japan LDP Leadership Election Battle

A Record 11 Expected Candidates... Ishiba vs Koizumi Likely
'Faction Dissolution' Reform Needed... Focus on 40s and Women

Eleven candidates, the highest number ever, are set to run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election scheduled for the 27th. With the official campaign starting on the 12th, a fierce competition is expected among prominent politicians vying to become the next prime minister amid the aftermath of faction disbandment.

Japan, a parliamentary system, is led by the leader of the majority party as prime minister. Since the LDP is the majority party, becoming the LDP president is virtually equivalent to becoming Japan's prime minister. With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announcing on the 14th of last month that he will not run, the next power structure in Japan will be decided. The fact that this is the first election after the 'faction disbandment' is also noteworthy. Due to a slush fund scandal, the party's factions were disbanded, and no candidate has strong backing, leading to a likely close contest.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is delivering a speech at the Liberal Democratic Party convention. Prime Minister Kishida announced on the 14th of last month that he would not run in the LDP presidential election.
[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Eleven Expected Candidates... Even Candidacy Is Difficult

In the LDP leadership election, each LDP member of parliament has one vote, totaling 367 votes, and party members (Japanese nationals paying party dues) and party supporters (members of LDP-affiliated political organizations) each have 367 votes, making a total of 734 votes. A candidate wins by securing a majority in the first round. However, with more than 10 expected candidates this time, it is unlikely that any candidate will secure a majority in the first round. As of the 6th, six candidates have expressed their intention to run, the highest number since the current LDP presidential candidacy system was introduced in 1972. If no candidate obtains a majority, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates. There have been two instances in the past where the second-place candidate won in the runoff, so the outcome cannot be taken for granted until the end.

This leadership election is not easy even to enter. To become a candidate, one must secure recommendations from 20 LDP members of parliament. With many expressing their intention to run, securing 20 recommendations is challenging, and since the key issue in this election is 'faction disbandment,' candidates cannot just focus on gathering numbers.

Mainichi Shimbun explained, "It is not just about gathering recommenders, but also about balancing factions, age groups, gender, and between the House of Representatives and House of Councillors," adding, "This serves as an indicator of broad support within the party." Nikkei reported, "There will be a fierce battle to secure the 20 recommenders needed for candidacy," and "Some candidates may give up running if they cannot gather enough recommenders."

Former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba
[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

'Four Attempts, Five Times Running' Ishiba vs. 'Fun Cool Sexy Left' Koizumi

Currently, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the second son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, are competing for first and second place in public opinion polls. According to an Asahi Shimbun telephone survey conducted nationwide from the 24th to 25th of last month among 1,058 people aged 18 and over, both Ishiba and Koizumi tied for first place with 21% support each.

A Mainichi Shimbun survey conducted from the 24th to 25th of last month among 950 people showed Ishiba at 29% and Koizumi at 16%, ranking first and second respectively. A Nikkei survey conducted with TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd among 595 people showed Koizumi leading with 23%, followed by Ishiba at 18%.

This is Ishiba's fifth time running for LDP president. He challenged four times from 2008 to 2020 but was unsuccessful. He is a 12-term member of the House of Representatives, first elected at age 29 in 1986, making him the youngest at that time. He has served as Director-General of the Defense Agency and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Unlike other conservative right-wing politicians regarding historical awareness, he is considered a dove. His weakness is a weak base within the party. Since half of the votes come from parliamentarians, their support is absolutely necessary.

Koizumi, 43, is seen as a 'young blood' with good looks, raising expectations that he can renew the LDP's image, which has been affected by the slush fund scandal. He entered politics in 2007 as a secretary to his father, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, and was elected in 2009 inheriting his father's Kanagawa 11th district. He is currently a five-term member and served as Environment Minister for two years starting in 2019 during Shinzo Abe's administration at the age of 38.

However, his lack of experience is considered a weakness. He has only one ministerial experience, and during his time as Environment Minister in 2019, he made a controversial remark saying that issues like climate change should be addressed in a fun, cool, and sexy way. This has become a well-known meme in Korea as 'Fun Cool Sexy Left.' He has also been involved in controversy over visits to Yasukuni Shrine.

Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi
[Photo by Reuters Yonhap News]

Digital Minister Taro Kono is running for the presidency for the third time, having previously run in 2009 and 2021. In the 2021 election, he lost to Fumio Kishida in the runoff. He is the leader of the 'Aso faction,' a major faction within the LDP. He is the eldest son of former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono, who in 1993 first acknowledged the forced mobilization of comfort women by the Japanese military and issued the 'Kono Statement.'

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi is running for the second time after 2012. He has served as Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, and Minister of Foreign Affairs. He was the second-in-command of the now-dissolved faction 'Kochikai' (Kishida faction).

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi has also declared his candidacy. He is a ten-term member of the House of Representatives and has served as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. He is the leader of the Motegi faction.

Former Minister in charge of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, was the first to declare his candidacy. He served as the inaugural Minister in charge of Economic Security under the Fumio Kishida administration and is a four-term member of the House of Representatives. However, he has shown right-wing tendencies, including visiting Yasukuni Shrine last month.

Female candidates also stand out. Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security, is a right-wing hardliner known as 'Little Abe.' Yoko Kamikawa, who served three times as Minister of Justice, and Seiko Noda, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications, are also preparing to run.

Additionally, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Gen Saito are gathering recommenders.

Will the 'Faction Disbandment' Bring a New Breeze to the LDP?

The key issue in this election is 'faction disbandment.' Until now, it was customary to put forward one candidate from each faction. However, after the slush fund scandal at the end of last year, major factions declared their dissolution, and this election is expected to differ from the past. This is why candidates in their 40s and female candidates are gaining attention.

Professor Yu Uchiyama of the University of Tokyo said, "Since the LDP's approval ratings have dropped significantly, they need to show that they have regained vitality."

With faction disbandment increasing the importance of party members' sentiments, candidates are also presenting policies focused on people's livelihoods. Secretary-General Motegi has pledged to pursue a 'zero tax increase' policy, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi has hinted at the possibility of extending subsidies for electricity and gas bills. Digital Minister Kono announced via his X (formerly Twitter) account that he would reduce social insurance premiums. Leading candidates Koizumi and Ishiba are also emphasizing economic measures.

Although a new breeze is blowing, there are still criticisms about the limitations of 'Daddy's chance.' According to Kyodo News, Ishiba, Koizumi, Kono, and Hayashi all inherited their local political bases from their politician fathers, making them hereditary politicians. Former Minister Noda's grandfather and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato's father-in-law were members of the House of Representatives. Nearly half of the candidates are hereditary politicians. This raises concerns that privileged hereditary politicians may find it difficult to truly understand the lives of ordinary citizens.

Bloomberg News stated, "LDP elections have generally been influenced by the choices of faction leaders, but since most factions decided to disband due to the slush fund scandal, this election will be one of the most unpredictable in years."