'US Presidential Election Provocation Scenario' Assumed... South Korea-US Discuss North Korea Nuclear Threat

Expanded Deterrence Strategy Council Meeting... "Possibility of North Korean Provocation"
South Korea and US Emphasize Extended Deterrence... Distance from Independent Nuclear Armament Theory
US: "If North Korea Uses Nuclear Weapons, It Means the End"... Continued Provision of Strategic Assets

The Republic of Korea and the United States assessed that North Korea is likely to carry out a major provocation such as a 7th nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch around the time of the U.S. presidential election in November, and they discussed response measures.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 5th, Kim Hong-kyun, the 1st Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated this at a press conference held after the 5th Korea-U.S. Foreign and Defense Expanded Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG) senior-level meeting held on the 4th (local time) at the U.S. Department of State building in Washington D.C.

On the 4th (local time), South Korea and the United States held the 5th High-Level Meeting of the Korea-US Extended Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG) at the U.S. Department of State building in Washington, DC. From left: Kim Hong-kyun, 1st Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Korea; Bonnie Jenkins, U.S. Department of State Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security; Kara Abercrombie, Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; Cho Chang-rae, Director General of Defense Policy, Ministry of National Defense.
[Photo by Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

Vice Minister Kim said, "North Korea has not stopped enhancing its nuclear and missile capabilities and has recently provoked by disrupting satellite navigation systems (GPS) and releasing filth balloons," adding, "In this situation, the two countries' assessment is that the possibility of North Korea carrying out a major provocation around the U.S. presidential election cannot be ruled out at all."

It was reported that the meeting discussed various North Korean provocation scenarios and corresponding response measures. From Korea, Vice Minister Kim and Cho Chang-rae, Director General of Defense Policy at the Ministry of National Defense, attended, while from the U.S. side, Bonnie Jenkins, U.S. Department of State Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, and Kara Abercrombie, Acting Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, participated.

Vice Minister Kim emphasized, "The most optimal way to respond to North Korea's nuclear threat is to strengthen extended deterrence," and added, "We will continue to pursue ways to strengthen extended deterrence through the Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and EDSCG."

In response to a question about demands that South Korea should consider its own nuclear armament due to North Korea's continuous nuclear threat, he drew a clear line, saying, "Nuclear armament, including redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, is not the position of the South Korean government."

U.S. Deputy Under Secretary Jenkins also expressed a negative view on South Korea's own nuclear armament claims, saying, "We are doing our best to show how committed we are, including through this meeting," and "South Korea can rely on us." Acting Deputy Under Secretary Abercrombie added, "To be clear, the United States is firmly confident in its nuclear deterrence and the nuclear posture capabilities we have today." He further stated, "The United States will continue to provide flexible nuclear forces suitable for deterring nuclear conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region, including strategic bombers, dual-capable aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons."

On the 4th (local time), South Korea and the United States held the 5th High-Level Meeting of the Korea-US Expanded Deterrence Strategy Consultative Group (EDSCG) at the U.S. Department of State building in Washington, DC.
[Photo by Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

When asked whether the Korea-U.S. position is to respond with nuclear weapons if North Korea uses nuclear weapons, Vice Minister Kim replied, "If North Korea uses nuclear weapons, it will face an immediate, overwhelming, and decisive response, and there is no scenario in which it can survive after using nuclear weapons, which is the firm position of both countries."

In this regard, Cho Chang-rae, Director General of Defense Policy at the Ministry of National Defense, added, "Through the U.S. extended deterrence commitment, we have continuously expressed the alliance's will, including at today's meeting, to respond to North Korea's nuclear threat by utilizing all available assets, including U.S. nuclear assets, in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack."

Deputy Under Secretary Jenkins stated, "The United States has pledged extended deterrence to South Korea using all defense capabilities," and "We reaffirmed that North Korea's nuclear attack on the United States or its allies and partners is unacceptable and would lead to the end of the North Korean regime." Acting Deputy Under Secretary Abercrombie said, "North Korea's nuclear attack is unacceptable and would result in the end of the regime," but left room by adding, "However, our goal is the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and we are willing to engage in dialogue with North Korea without preconditions."

At the meeting, for the first time, effective deterrence and specific response measures were discussed based on scenarios of the North Korean nuclear threat situation. Measures for responding to and cooperating on North Korean threats in non-nuclear domains such as artificial intelligence (AI), space, cyber, and biochemical fields, as well as ways to send messages to North Korea, were also addressed.