Samsung Futures announced on the 4th that global investment bank (IB) Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 average copper price forecast by about $5,000, from $15,000 to $10,100.
Goldman Sachs postponed its year-end copper target price of $12,000 to after 2025. The average price estimate for 2025 was revised downward to $10,100 from the previous forecast of $15,000.
Researcher Ok Ji-hee explained, "This is mainly due to the prevailing downside risks to China's economic outlook and recent Chinese data this summer indicating a decline in demand for commodities overall, especially oil and copper. Additionally, despite mining supply issues and reduced copper consumption, refined copper production has increased, so a sharp inventory depletion will occur much later than previously expected."
Ok added, "Although Goldman Sachs has ended its long-term bullish outlook, it mentioned that since the market is still heading toward a steep supply shortage, there is a possibility of switching back to a bullish position within the next few years."
Jeff Currie, Chief Energy Strategist at The Carlyle Group and former Goldman Sachs executive, also predicted that copper is likely to trade within a narrow range of $8,500 to $9,500 per ton until Chinese policy support somewhat strengthens demand.
Researcher Ok noted, "According to Jeff Currie, copper has bottomed out based on structural supply shortages, but since bearish sentiment dominates China's real estate market, which is a key driver of current copper consumption, there are limits to price increases."
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