[Good Morning Stock Market] Focus on US Employment Data... KOSPI Expected to Show 'Wait-and-See' Market Sentiment

On the 2nd, the KOSPI is expected to continue a stock-specific market amid cautious trading.

On the 30th of last month (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,563.08, up 228.03 points (0.55%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 index rose 56.44 points (1.01%) to 5,648.40, and the Nasdaq Composite index increased 197.19 points (1.13%) to 17,713.62.

The New York stock market closed higher due to positive economic indicators in line with expectations and strong earnings from tech companies. The Dow continued its record-high rally, and the S&P 500 closed at its highest level since mid-July.

July's personal income and personal consumption expenditures, released that day, increased by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively compared to the previous month. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's inflation gauge, rose 0.2% month-over-month for both headline and core measures, meeting expectations.

Additionally, the University of Michigan's one-year ahead inflation expectations fell to 2.8%, the lowest since December 2020. With growing expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate was revised upward from 2.0% to 2.5%.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Korea Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) rose 0.1%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF increased 0.2%. Eurex KOSPI 200 futures closed down 0.2%. Considering this, the KOSPI is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range on the day.

Seokhwan Kim, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, analyzed, "Last month, the domestic stock market showed the weakest performance among major global markets," adding, "This was due to a lack of leading stocks and momentum, resulting in a foreign investor supply gap." He continued, "According to the August trade data released the day before, semiconductor exports recorded the lowest level in five months, and secondary batteries posted a negative export growth rate for nine consecutive months. Given that the U.S. stock market was closed for Labor Day and the high sensitivity to this week's employment data, a stock-specific market amid cautious trading is expected to continue in the early part of the week."

Meanwhile, the one-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) USD/KRW exchange rate stood at 1,335 won, and reflecting this, the USD/KRW exchange rate is expected to open 4 won lower than the previous day.