[Click eStock] "Semiconductors Need Conviction More Than Nvidia Expectations"

On the 27th, Korea Investment & Securities assessed that the domestic semiconductor sector requires more confidence in the industry outlook rather than expecting positive news from Nvidia.

Nvidia's Q2 earnings announcement is scheduled for the 28th, and the market is anticipating an earnings surprise.

Researcher Cha Min-sook stated, "At this point, the Nvidia earnings play on domestic semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is not considered valid," adding, "Unlike AI-leading stocks such as TSMC and Broadcom, the recent price adjustments of the three major DRAM companies began amid growing concerns over declining DRAM average selling prices (ASP) due to increased mobile inventory."

She emphasized, "While AI-related earnings such as HBM are already reflected in estimates, the biggest issue is the rising inventory of general DRAM, especially mobile-focused DRAM, outside of AI."

She continued, "Micron is leading price cuts mainly in the mobile segment to reduce inventory at the end of the fiscal quarter," and added, "Samsung Electronics is likely to compensate for insufficient HBM bit growth by increasing sales of general DRAM."

Researcher Cha forecasted, "To reverse the sentiment, confidence is needed that DRAM ASP will continue to rise through Q4," and "the time to confirm this will be after mid-September."

He also noted, "While Nvidia's earnings are important, confidence in the industry outlook is even more necessary for memory," and "among the three major DRAM companies, we maintain a top preference for SK Hynix, which has the highest HBM proportion and is advantageous in defending ASP and earnings."