Tears of 'Mongtan New Town' Caught Between China and Russia... Precarious Tightrope Diplomacy [AK Radio]

Conflict Between China and Russia Over Gas Pipeline via Mongolia
From Medieval Military Power to Minor State
Connected to Overall Situation in Korea and Northeast Asia

Recently, as Korean companies have been actively entering the Mongolian market, a new term "Mongtan New City" has emerged. Various Korean brands such as Mom's Touch, Mega Coffee, and Tous Les Jours are steadily expanding into Mongolia. Geographically, Mongolia is closer to China, but the phenomenon of Korean companies being more active in entering the market appears unusual. However, this is closely related to Mongolia's complex geopolitical situation. Hidden within the Mongtan New City phenomenon is Mongolia's survival strategy, surrounded by the great powers of China and Russia.

Conflict between China and Russia over the gas pipeline passing through Mongolia... Caution over power expansion

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Mongolia is a landlocked country bordering China and Russia, with a vast territory about 20 times the size of South Korea but a population of only 3.5 million. Caught between these great powers, Mongolia fears economic and cultural dependence on China. In this context, Mongolia welcomes the entry of Korean companies while being cautious of Chinese companies, and acts as a neutral zone between Russia and China.

Recently, the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline construction project was postponed, which can be understood in this context. The project was to build a direct gas pipeline from Russia through Mongolia to China but has been delayed until after 2028. The official reason for the delay was the failure to reach an agreement on gas prices between China and Russia.

However, the real reason for the breakdown in negotiations appears to be more complex. The Russian government insisted on directly managing the gas pipeline passing through Mongolia. This is interpreted as leaving room for military intervention beyond simple pipeline management. If Russia stations Russian gas companies and personnel under the pretext of managing the pipeline, it could justify military intervention to protect its nationals in emergencies. China is believed to be highly wary of this.

Mongolia's fall from an invincible medieval military power to a small state

Genghis Khan Statue located on the outskirts of Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia. [Image source=EPA·Yonhap News]

Mongolia, which must devise survival strategies amid neighboring giants China and Russia, has long lost its past military stature. Currently, Mongolia's military strength consists of about 30,000 active troops and around 100,000 including reserves. It is estimated that only about 10,000 active troops are available for actual combat in emergencies. The air force has fewer than 10 aircraft combining fighters and transports, and as a landlocked country, Mongolia has no navy. From the perspective of China and Russia, the world's second and third largest military powers, Mongolia's military strength is virtually negligible.

As a result, Mongolia has no choice but to engage in precarious balancing diplomacy between the great powers. While maintaining formal relations with both countries, it strives not to overly depend on either side. At the same time, it leverages this geopolitical situation to its advantage. When relations with China sour, Mongolia seeks to improve ties with the US or Russia, and vice versa. Through this, it aims to provoke tensions among neighboring countries and secure its own interests.

Historically, Mongolia was a dominant power in the 13th century during the era of Genghis Khan. At that time, Mongolian cavalry was considered the strongest military force. Mongolian military tactics greatly influenced modern military strategy. It is regarded as the prototype of the blitzkrieg tactics used by Nazi Germany, where a vanguard unit breaks through enemy defenses and advances without supply lines to strike key enemy strongholds.

However, with the advent of firearms in modern times, the era of cavalry ended, and Mongolia's military power declined. From the 18th to 19th centuries, firearms and artillery became the main weapons, and cavalry no longer dominated the battlefield. After World War I, with the introduction of automobiles, cavalry tactics completely disappeared into history. With a small population and limited economic power, Mongolia could not adapt to modern warfare.

The backlash caused by the Ukraine war... The fragile balance of power between China and Russia

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The biggest challenge Mongolia currently faces is the potential breakdown of the balance of power between China and Russia in the Far East region. Due to the war in Ukraine, Russia's population in the Far East has significantly decreased, as many young people have been mobilized and either killed or injured. This situation could provide China with an opportunity to expand its influence in the region.

The border area between China and Russia has been a subject of dispute since the Soviet era in the 1960s. Without proper border demarcation, armed clashes have repeatedly occurred, and in the 1960s, China and the Soviet Union even engaged in limited skirmishes along the border. China still regards territories including Primorsky Krai and Mongolia, which were part of the former Qing Dynasty, as somewhat unrecovered lands, which has perpetuated the disputes.

In response to these rapidly changing circumstances, Mongolia is expanding exchanges with Western countries including South Korea and striving to strengthen its position in the international community. Although Mongolia is pursuing economic development based on its abundant natural resources, its population of only 3.5 million limits industrialization and military strengthening, making it necessary to have many allied countries.

Mongolia's situation connected to South Korea and Northeast Asian affairs

Mongolia's geopolitical situation is also related to the Korean Peninsula. China's continuous attempts to expand its influence into Mongolia reinforce its hegemonic tendencies, which could significantly impact the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

Currently, Mongolia is trying to strengthen relations with countries other than China and Russia through its "Third Neighbor" policy. This strategy aims to reduce dependence on the two great powers and enhance Mongolia's standing in the international community. Strengthening ties with South Korea, Japan, and the United States can be understood in this context.

Additionally, Mongolia is promoting economic development based on its abundant natural resources. It has deposits of coal, copper, gold, and various other minerals, and developing and exporting these resources is a key pillar of its economy. However, as a landlocked country, Mongolia faces difficulties in exporting resources and is seeking cooperation with neighboring countries to overcome these challenges.

Mongolia's population issue is also noteworthy. The extremely low population relative to its vast territory hinders economic development. The Mongolian government is implementing various policies to increase the population, but this is a difficult task to solve in the short term. This also poses challenges for foreign companies investing and entering the market.

The future of Mongolia's diplomatic strategy and economic development process is worth watching. Whether Mongolia can maintain independence while achieving economic growth amid great powers, and how its relationship with South Korea will develop in the process, are matters of keen interest. Mongolia's case will serve as an important example of how geopolitical location influences a nation's fate.

Korean companies' entry into Mongolia is occurring amid this complex situation. While welcomed by the Mongolian government, risks arising from the unstable geopolitical environment also exist. However, as the interests of both Korea and Mongolia align, economic cooperation is expected to strengthen further in the future.

Mongolia's case is an intriguing example of how a small country can survive and develop amid great powers. Mongolia's efforts to overcome the disadvantages of its geopolitical location and turn them into opportunities provide important insights into the dynamics of international politics and economics. Continued attention is needed to see how Mongolia navigates this complex situation and what relationships it will build with Korea and neighboring countries in the process.

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