One Month Before Japan's LDP Leadership Election
Former Prime Minister's Son and 12-Term Former Secretary-General Form Two-Strong-Candidate Race
Mid-Level Support for Digital Minister Kono's Third Challenge
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in Japan is approaching on the 27th of next month. In Japan's parliamentary system, the leader of the ruling party becomes the Prime Minister. Among the current candidates, former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, who is making his fifth attempt after four previous tries, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the second son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, are forming a two-horse race, leading the opinion polls.
Former Japanese Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is answering questions from the press at the Prime Minister's Official Residence in Tokyo on the 19th. Tokyo=Photo by Kyodo News
The gap in support between the two candidates is not large. However, former Secretary-General Ishiba is building a stable support base mainly among the elderly, while former Environment Minister Koizumi is gaining momentum primarily among younger generations.
On the 26th, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported that in a nationwide opinion poll conducted from the 23rd to the 25th among 1,056 voters aged 18 and over, when asked which of the 11 LDP politicians is suitable to be the next party leader, former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba ranked first with 22%.
Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi followed with 20%, and Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security, came in third with 10%. Next were Digital Minister Taro Kono with 7%, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa with 6%, former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi with 5%, LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi with 2%, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Seiko Noda with 1%, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi with 1%, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato with 1%, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Gen Saito with 0%. 'Others' accounted for 0%, and 'None' was 10%.
In the previous July poll, which included Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, former Secretary-General Ishiba had 25%. However, in the August poll, his support dropped by about 3 percentage points to 22%. Meanwhile, former Environment Minister Koizumi rose from 15% last month by 5 percentage points, and Minister of Economic Security Takaichi increased from 6% by 4 percentage points.
On September 10, 2018, Shigeru Ishiba, then Japan's Minister of Defense, is speaking at the presidential election debate held at the Tokyo Liberal Democratic Party headquarters. [Tokyo=AFP Yonhap News]
In a poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun from the 24th to 25th among 950 voters, when asked who they would prefer to be chosen in the LDP leadership election, former Secretary-General Ishiba received the most support at 29%. Former Environment Minister Koizumi followed with 16%, and Minister of Economic Security Takaichi ranked third with 13%. Next were former Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi (7%) and Foreign Minister Kamikawa (6%).
In a poll conducted by Nihon Keizai Shimbun together with TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd among 595 people, former Environment Minister Koizumi led with 23% support, followed by former Secretary-General Ishiba at 18%.
Former Secretary-General Ishiba has run for the party leadership four times between 2008 and 2020 but has been unsuccessful each time.
Since setting the youngest record at age 29 in the 1986 House of Representatives election, he has served as a 12-term consecutive member of parliament. He has held positions such as Director-General of the Defense Agency, Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Minister in charge of Regional Revitalization, and has served as LDP Policy Research Council Chairman and Secretary-General. Within the LDP, he is considered a dove faction member, showing a different historical perspective from the right-wing lawmakers represented by the 'Abe faction.'
Former Environment Minister Koizumi has attracted attention as a potential future Prime Minister, with a distinguished background as the son of a former Prime Minister and a handsome appearance. In 2019, during his tenure as Environment Minister, he sparked controversy by saying that "big issues like climate change should be addressed in a fun, cool, and sexy way," which was criticized as an overly casual expression. In South Korea, he earned the nickname 'Fun Cool Sexy Leftist.'
At 43 years old, he boasts the major advantage of being 'young blood' and is regarded as a fresh figure who can help the LDP overcome its corrupt image, such as the 'slush fund scandal,' which rocked the party last December. However, he is also one of the politicians who regularly visits Yasukuni Shrine, where 14 Class A war criminals from the Pacific War are enshrined.
Taro Kono, Digital Minister and ranked 4th to 6th in support, held a press conference at the National Diet in the afternoon and officially declared his candidacy, saying, "I want to move this country forward."
This is Kono's third attempt at the party leadership, following 2009 and 2021. In the 2021 LDP leadership election, he lost in the runoff to current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Earlier, Kono informed Taro Aso, LDP Vice President and leader of his faction, of his intention to run, and it is reported that Aso approved. Kono is the eldest son of former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yohei Kono, who issued the 'Kono Statement' in August 1993, acknowledging and apologizing for the forced mobilization of comfort women by the Japanese military.
With this, the number of officially declared candidates has increased to three, including former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi and former Secretary-General Ishiba.
The 11 potential candidates currently mentioned include former Secretary-General Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, Digital Minister Taro Kono, Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, former Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications Seiko Noda, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Gen Saito, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato.
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