North Deploys Ballistic Missiles Forward... The Issue Is 'Missile Production' [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Short-Range Ballistic Missile 'Hwaseong-11Ra' Forward Deployment
Mobile Launcher Produced but Missile Status Uncertain

North Korea is significantly strengthening its ballistic missile units in the front-line areas. North Korea announced that it will newly produce 250 ballistic missile transporter erector launchers (TELs) and deploy them to the front lines, but analysts believe it will take time before they are fully operational.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 5th, North Korea reported holding a ceremony to deliver 250 newly produced tactical ballistic missile launchers from a military factory to units on the first line of the border.

North Korea reported on the 5th that it held a ceremony to deliver 250 newly produced tactical ballistic missile launchers from a military factory to units on the first line of the border. The launchers shown in the released photos are identified as being for the short-range ballistic missile (CRBM) ‘Hwasong-11Ra’ with a range of about 110 km.

Deployment of ‘Hwasong-11’ nicknamed ‘North Korean KTSSM’

Missile launchers can be compared to guns used to fire bullets. South Korea and the U.S. had previously estimated that North Korea possessed between 100 and 250 TELs, so if the newly produced 250 TELs are accurate, this is a considerable number. Each launcher is equipped with four square launch tubes. If all 250 launchers fire simultaneously, they could launch up to 1,000 missiles. North Korea appears to have revealed a large number of launchers with the threat intention of operating CRBMs like artillery forces in case of emergency, overwhelming South Korean defense networks through simultaneous multiple attacks.

The missile North Korea plans to deploy is the ‘Hwasong-11 Ra’ type. The Hwasong-11 series ‘Ga, Na, Da, Ra’ are estimated to carry payloads ranging from 500 kg to 2.5 tons. North Korea’s short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) Hwasong-11 Ga is called the ‘North Korean Iskander’ KN-23, and Hwasong-11 Na is called the ‘North Korean ATACMS’ KN-24. Additionally, North Korea is developing various derivative models of the Hwasong-11, including the Hwasong-11 Da with an increased warhead weight of 2.5 tons and the short-range Hwasong-11 Ra, which is similar to the Korean Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missile (KTSSM) and is sometimes referred to as the ‘North Korean KTSSM.’

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The military and defense research institutions currently designate the missile deployment lines of North Korea as three belts for convenience, and considering the range, it is highly likely that the new launchers will be deployed in the first belt. The first belt is located 50 to 90 km north of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), where the Scud brigades are stationed. With a range of 300 to 700 km, these missiles can target the entire South Korean territory. Approximately 400 Scud missiles are currently deployed, and the number of TELs is estimated to be around 40.

Likely deployment in the 1st belt, 50-90 km north of the DMZ

The second belt is established 90 to 120 km north of the DMZ and is managed by the Nodong missile brigades. More than 300 Nodong missiles with a range of 1,200 km are deployed there, capable of striking U.S. forces stationed in Japan. The number of TELs for Nodong missiles is estimated to be around 30.

The third belt is a rear area based on Cheolsan in North Pyongan Province, Geomdeok Mountain in South Hamgyong Province, and Junggang in Jagang Province. Located 175 km north of the DMZ, this area is estimated to have 30 to 50 Musudan missiles deployed. These missiles can be launched while moving on about 30 TELs, capable of striking the Guam base. Furthermore, if the ICBM-class KN-08 is deployed in the third belt, it could threaten not only Hawaii but also the U.S. mainland.

However, even if North Korea deploys these launchers operationally, it is uncertain whether they will pose a significant threat to South Korea’s military. Although theoretically capable of firing 1,000 missiles simultaneously, analysts believe it is difficult for North Korea to secure that many ballistic missiles.

An official from the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, “There have been reports that the missile launchers are being deployed to the front lines, but there is currently no trend of deploying 250 launchers to the front lines,” adding, “It is expected to take considerable time to produce the missiles to be loaded into the launchers.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea’s military industry is overseen by the Second Economic Committee under the National Defense Commission. The Second Economic Committee consists of seven machinery industry bureaus, including the General Bureau as a support department. The First Bureau is responsible for conventional small arms, ammunition, and general military equipment; the Second Bureau handles tanks; the Third Bureau manages artillery and anti-aircraft guns. The production of artillery and shells, directed by First Chairman Kim Jong-un, is known to be carried out at over 50 general artillery and ammunition factories located in Pyongyang, Chongjin, and Kangje. The Fourth Bureau is responsible for missile system development; the Fifth Bureau handles nuclear and biochemical weapons; the Sixth Bureau manages ships and submarines; and the Seventh Bureau is in charge of communication equipment and aircraft. The Fourth Bureau oversees five factories, including Hamhung 1.28 and 1.25 machinery plants and Kangje’s 26th general factory, while the Sixth Bureau manages the Chongjin manufacturing plant and Nampo shipyard.

Full operation of military factories with Russian support

North Korea currently possesses about 300 military factories, and in addition, civilian factories designated as wartime conversion factories can switch to wartime mobilization systems in a short time. Most use disguised names such as ‘Factory No. 000’ and are equipped with underground facilities. Additionally, over 110 general factories are designated as wartime conversion factories, enabling immediate production of military supplies during wartime. Most war materials are stored in tunnel stockpiling facilities, with an estimated supply for about two to three months.

Production of live ammunition for front-line deployment will take time

Among these, missile production factories find it difficult to meet demand with Russian support alone. Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said at a press briefing at the Ministry of National Defense building in February this year, “Since last August, more than 6,700 containers have been sent to Russia,” estimating that “if the containers contain 152mm shells, it would be over 3 million rounds, and if rocket artillery shells, over 500,000 rounds.” Minister Shin added, “North Korea’s general military factory operation rate is low, around 30%, but the factories producing weapons and shells provided to Russia are operating at full capacity.”

Earlier, the U.S. released photos showing containers moving from North Korea to Russia in October last year, stating, “Before the North Korea-Russia summit in September last year, North Korea provided over 1,000 containers worth of military equipment and ammunition to Russia.” The South Korean military authorities have also confirmed that arms transactions between North Korea and Russia have been actively ongoing even after the North Korea-Russia summit.