Will US Stock Market Crash Hold Back Harris? Trump Launches Full-Scale Attack Calling Her "Incompetent Leader"

"Economic Pessimism to Weigh on Harris"
Concerns Raised Over Jeonse Reversal Before September Rate Cut

The U.S. stock market has plunged sharply, and as concerns about an economic recession spread, there are assessments that the election outlook could turn unfavorable for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has launched a full-scale offensive, blaming the stock market plunge on Vice President Harris.

On the morning of the 5th (local time), as the U.S. stock market plummeted right after opening, former President Trump wrote on Truth Social, "The stock market is collapsing, employment figures are terrible, the world is heading toward World War III, and we have two of the most incompetent leaders in history," adding, "Voters have a choice: the prosperity (Cash) that Trump will bring or the collapse (Crash) and Great Depression that Kamala will cause."

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Republican vice presidential candidate Senator J.D. Vance also joined in on X (formerly Twitter), saying, "Right now, this moment could be a critical point that brings disaster to the global economy," and emphasized, "We need the stable leadership that former President Trump provided for four years." The Republican Party, which has focused on highlighting the Biden administration's failures and the resulting inflation, is seizing this stock market plunge as an opportunity to put Vice President Harris on the defensive. On that day, the three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange all fell around 3% due to employment shocks and spreading recession fears.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) noted, "As a sense of crisis over the instability of the U.S. economy rises among voters, former President Trump has an opportunity to gain an advantage in the presidential race against Vice President Harris," adding, "The problem is that Harris has very little she can do immediately to reassure voters and investors." Republican pollster Myka Roberts pointed out, "Negative economic news will be a burden on the Harris campaign."

However, there is also analysis that the election dynamics could be reversed at any time. Jason Furman, former chief economic advisor to President Barack Obama, said, "There are still three months' worth of economic data left before the election," and noted, "The economy has many variables, and it rarely moves in only one direction." If the Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, it could strengthen the perception that inflation is finally under control and the economic outlook is improving, turning the situation into an opportunity for Vice President Harris.

On the other hand, there is also an observation that stock market indices may have little impact on the election. During the 2020 presidential election, the U.S. stock market rode a rising wave thanks to massive liquidity released after the pandemic, but former President Trump still lost the White House to President Biden. Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicted on X, "The stock market doesn't matter. Just as rising stock prices didn't help Trump, falling prices won't hurt Harris."

Meanwhile, according to a poll conducted by CBS News and polling firm YouGov from the 30th of last month to the 2nd, surveying 3,102 voters nationwide, Vice President Harris's national support rate was 50%, slightly ahead of former President Trump’s 49% within the margin of error (±2.1%).