Harris 48% vs Trump 47%
Immigration and Economic Policies Are Weaknesses
Kamala Harris, the Vice President who has emerged as the leading Democratic presidential candidate in the U.S. presidential election, is fiercely competing against former President Donald Trump, aiming to capitalize on the "honeymoon effect." She has overtaken Trump in seven key battleground states that will determine the election outcome, turning the tide in her favor.
On the 30th (local time), Bloomberg News reported that according to a survey conducted by polling firm Morning Consult from the 24th to the 28th among 4,937 registered voters in seven battleground states, Vice President Harris's approval rating stood at 48%, narrowly ahead of former President Trump’s 47% within the margin of error (±1?5%).
Harris held the lead in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Georgia was tied. Trump maintained an advantage in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Bloomberg stated, "These figures suggest that Vice President Harris has an opportunity to reassemble the coalition of voters that brought President Barack Obama to the White House," adding, "The Republicans had a strong chance of winning against President Joe Biden, but their chances appear slimmer against Harris."
However, immigration and economic issues remain vulnerabilities for Vice President Harris. According to the Bloomberg and Morning Consult survey, 40% of respondents said Harris had a somewhat or very negative impact on immigration policy under the Biden administration. While her support for economic policies has narrowed the gap with President Biden, she still trails former President Trump by 8 percentage points.
In a Reuters and Ipsos poll conducted the same day, Vice President Harris secured 43% support among registered voters, slightly ahead of former President Trump’s 42% within the margin of error (±3.5%). In a real-time poll conducted immediately after President Biden’s resignation, Harris’s approval rating was 44%, 2 percentage points higher than Trump’s.
Nevertheless, voters in this poll also expressed greater support for Trump’s policies over Harris’s on economic, immigration, and crime issues.
Vice President Harris is expected to accelerate her campaign momentum. She is currently reviewing potential running mates privately. Bloomberg analyzed that securing support in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other states is a crucial factor for Harris as she prepares to select her running mate.
According to The New York Times (NYT), Harris plans to announce her running mate by August 6 at the latest. Following the announcement, she intends to campaign alongside her running mate in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona), Governor Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), Governor Tim Walz (Minnesota), Governor Andy Beshear (Kentucky), and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are among the leading candidates.
When asked by reporters whether she had decided on her running mate, Vice President Harris replied, "Not yet."
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